Ham-Kam vs Aalesund: Ham-Kam to win
Ham‑Kam average 1.9 expected goals versus Aalesund's 1.0, and the model assigns a 58.4% win probability to the home side. Both teams' recent form and head‑to‑head record point to a home victory.
Both clubs enter the clash with contrasting recent results – Ham‑Kam have finally broken a run of defeats with a 3‑0 win, while Aalesund continue to leak goals despite a series of draws. The fixture pits a side that has shown a sudden offensive spark against a visitor that has struggled to keep the net clean.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 58.4% win probability, backed by a 1.9 xG advantage and a recent 3‑0 away win, makes a home victory the logical choice.
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With Ham-Kam averaging 1.9 expected goals and Aalesund averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 46.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.9 (Ham-Kam 1.9 + Aalesund 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 55.4% chance against 44.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ham-Kam at 58.4%, the draw at 22.1%, and Aalesund at 19.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 10.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ham-Kam
Ham‑Kam’s last five league outings read DLLLW. They drew 2‑2 away at Sandefjord, then suffered a 1‑4 home loss to Tromsø and a 0‑3 away defeat at Bodo/Glimt, followed by a 0‑1 away loss to Sarpsborg 08. The sequence ended with a 3‑0 away win at Valerenga, showing they can score heavily when the odds turn – a key factor for a home win.
Aalesund
Aalesund’s recent five results are DDLDL. They opened with a 2‑2 home draw against Ham‑Kam, then another 2‑2 home draw versus Molde. After a 1‑6 away loss to Valerenga, they earned a 1‑1 home draw with Viking before a 2‑6 home defeat to Tromsø. Conceding six goals twice and scoring only two in the other three games underscores defensive frailty and limited firepower, weakening their chances of an away win.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, there are two 2‑2 draws, a 0‑2 win for Ham‑Kam in August 2023, a 2‑1 win for Ham‑Kam in July 2023, and a 3‑1 win for Aalesund in March 2023 – the recent 0‑2 result favours the home side.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2026 | Aalesund 2-2 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 20 May 2025 | Aalesund 2-2 Ham-Kam | NM Cupen |
| 13 Aug 2023 | Aalesund 0-2 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 7 Jul 2023 | Ham-Kam 2-1 Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| 17 Mar 2023 | Aalesund 3-1 Ham-Kam | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Ham-Kam: N. Alexandersson (Injury), A. Ekeroth (Leg Injury), L. Mares (Groin Injury), O. Rye (Injury)
Aalesund: A. Kjelsen (Thigh Injury), P. Ngongo (Surgery), J. Seehusen (Injury), M. Reed (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam and Aalesund drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Ham-Kam to win.
What was the final score of Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam 1-1 Aalesund (full time).
When was Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam played Aalesund on Sun 9 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Briskeby Arena.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →All signs – superior xG, a recent high‑scoring win, and a head‑to‑head tilt toward the hosts – converge on a simple conclusion: Ham‑Kam are the most likely victors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
