Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK: Both teams to score – No
Ham‑Kam enter the Eliteserien clash with a model win probability of 66.4% versus Kristiansund’s 11.8%. The model rates the match at 37.7% for both teams to score and 57.0% for under 2.5 goals.
Both sides come in with mixed recent form – Ham‑Kam have slipped to a fifth‑place string of LLWDL, while Kristiansund have scraped a DLLWL run. Injuries to Ham‑Kam’s N. Alexandersson and D. Benjamin and to Kristiansund’s D. Tufekcic and A. Munksgaard add a further layer of uncertainty.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 62.3% probability that only one side will score, driven by Kristiansund’s modest 0.6 xG away and Ham‑Kam’s 1.5 GA at home.
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With Ham-Kam averaging 1.8 expected goals and Kristiansund BK averaging 0.6, the model gives a 62.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 37.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Ham-Kam 1.8 + Kristiansund BK 0.6) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ham-Kam at 66.4%, the draw at 21.9%, and Kristiansund BK at 11.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 16.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ham-Kam
Ham‑Kam’s recent league run includes a 0‑3 defeat at Bodo/Glimt (A) and a 3‑0 away win over Valerenga (A). The heavy loss to Brann (0‑3, A) and a 1‑1 home draw with Aalesund show volatility, but the 3‑0 win demonstrates their capacity to dominate, supporting a scenario where they keep a clean sheet.
Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund’s last five include a 0‑0 home draw with Sarpsborg 08 (H) and a 2‑1 home victory over Molde (H). The 1‑2 defeats to Start (H) and KFUM Oslo (A) highlight defensive frailties, yet the inability to score away – only 0‑1 at Fredrikstad (A) – reinforces the low BTTS likelihood.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Ham‑Kam have won three times (1‑3 in 2025, 2‑1 in 2025‑03‑30, 1‑0 in 2024‑10‑27) and Kristiansund have managed one win (2‑1 on 2026‑02‑18) and a draw (1‑1 on 2026‑05‑03), underscoring Ham‑Kam’s defensive edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Kristiansund BK 2-1 Ham-Kam | Friendlies Clubs |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Kristiansund BK 1-3 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Ham-Kam 2-1 Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Ham-Kam 1-0 Kristiansund BK | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Ham-Kam: N. Alexandersson (Injury), D. Benjamin (Injury), H. Opsahl (Injury), A. Ekeroth (Leg Injury)
Kristiansund BK: D. Tufekcic (Thigh Injury), N. Finset (International duty), A. Munksgaard (Foot Injury), H. Bruseth (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam and Kristiansund BK drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – No.
What was the final score of Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam 2-2 Kristiansund BK (full time).
When was Ham-Kam vs Kristiansund BK?
Ham-Kam played Kristiansund BK on Sun 30 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Briskeby Arena.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →With the away side’s goal threat limited and the hosts’ defence relatively tight, the odds tilt heavily against both sides finding the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
