Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken: Hammarby to win
Hammarby’s 3.3 expected goals at home face BK Hacken’s 1.9 on the road, and the model backs a clear home win. The numbers point to a high‑scoring, BTTS‑likely contest.
Both sides enter the match with contrasting recent form: Hammarby have bounced back from an opening loss to record three wins and a draw in their last five, while BK Hacken have struggled to find consistency, registering only one win amid four defeats and draws.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 64.4% win probability for Hammarby, backed by a 3.3 versus 1.9 expected‑goals gap, makes the home side the clear favourite.
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With Hammarby FF averaging 3.3 expected goals and BK Hacken averaging 1.9, the model gives a 81.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 18.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.2 (Hammarby FF 3.3 + BK Hacken 1.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 88.4% chance against 11.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hammarby FF at 64.4%, the draw at 15.1%, and BK Hacken at 19.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 6.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Hammarby FF
Hammarby’s last five league results read LWWWD, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win at IF Elfsborg and a 4‑0 home thrashing of Degerfors IF. The recent win‑draw‑win pattern shows they have regained balance after the opening loss, reinforcing confidence in their ability to secure three points here.
BK Hacken
BK Hacken’s form of LLWDD includes a 2‑0 away win over Halmstad but also consecutive defeats to Djurgårdens IF (2‑4) and Orgryte IS (3‑4). The solitary win amid four non‑wins signals limited momentum, suggesting they will struggle to overturn the home side’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
In recent meetings, Hammarby have triumphed 4‑0 (2025-09-21) and 4‑1 (2026-06-24), while Hacken’s narrow 3‑2 win on 2026-05-31 stands out as the only recent victory for the visitors, underscoring Hammarby’s historical dominance.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2026 | BK Hacken 1-4 Hammarby FF | Friendlies Clubs |
| 31 May 2026 | BK Hacken 3-2 Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Hammarby FF 4-0 BK Hacken | Allsvenskan |
| 27 Apr 2025 | BK Hacken 1-1 Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Hammarby FF 2-0 BK Hacken | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
Hammarby FF: S. Kone (Knee Injury), V. Eriksson (Yellow Cards), H. Skoglund (Red Card), T. Tekie (Inactive)
BK Hacken: E. Berisha (Back Injury), B. Engdahl (Injury), F. Ohman (Shoulder Injury), J. Lindberg (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Hammarby FF won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Hammarby to win.
What was the final score of Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Hammarby FF 3-0 BK Hacken (full time).
When was Hammarby FF vs BK Hacken?
Hammarby FF played BK Hacken on Sun 9 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at 3Arena.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →Given the clear edge in expected goals and the recent form swing, the logical outcome is a Hammarby victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
