Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna: Hammarby to win
Hammarby’s 3.1 expected goals versus Brommapojkarna’s 1.4 set up a clear scoring disparity, and the model backs a 70.8% win probability for the hosts.
Both sides come into the match with contrasting recent form – Hammarby have been prolific at home while Brommapojkarna have been inconsistent on the road.
Lars's Verdict
With a 70.8% model probability and a superior expected‑goals profile, Hammarby are the clear favorites to secure the three points.
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With Hammarby FF averaging 3.1 expected goals and IF Brommapojkarna averaging 1.4, the model gives a 71.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 28.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.5 (Hammarby FF 3.1 + IF Brommapojkarna 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 82.2% chance against 17.8% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hammarby FF at 70.8%, the draw at 14.5%, and IF Brommapojkarna at 14.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 7.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Hammarby FF
Hammarby’s recent run includes a 3‑0 home win over BK Hacken and a 2‑0 home victory against Gais, both clean‑sheet successes that highlight their attacking potency and defensive solidity. Their only recent slip was a 2‑3 away loss to AIK, but the dominant home performances reinforce the likelihood of another win here.
IF Brommapojkarna
Brommapojkarna have struggled to replicate that form away, drawing 2‑2 at Sirius and suffering a 0‑4 defeat at Gais. Even their home wins, such as 3‑1 over Orgryte IS, have not translated into away points, suggesting limited threat in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Hammarby have won three times, notably a 4‑1 victory in September 2025, indicating a consistent advantage over Brommapojkarna.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2026 | IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 4 Sep 2025 | IF Brommapojkarna 1-4 Hammarby FF | Friendlies Clubs |
| 20 Jul 2025 | Hammarby FF 3-2 IF Brommapojkarna | Allsvenskan |
| 6 Apr 2025 | IF Brommapojkarna 0-2 Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 12 Aug 2024 | Hammarby FF 3-3 IF Brommapojkarna | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
Hammarby FF: S. Kone (Knee Injury), F. Adjei (Yellow Cards), V. Eriksson (Yellow Cards), H. Skoglund (Red Card)
IF Brommapojkarna: O. Berg (Injury), J. Simpson (Yellow Cards), L. Bjorklund (Inactive), D. Isso (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Hammarby to win.
What was the final score of Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF 3-1 IF Brommapojkarna (full time).
When was Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF played IF Brommapojkarna on Sun 13 Sep · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at 3Arena.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →The statistical edge and recent head‑to‑head dominance point to a straightforward result on paper.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
