Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · Hansa Rostock 0-4 VfB Stuttgart Ostseestadion

Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart: Under 2.5 goals

Stuttgart enter as heavy favourites with a 60.6% win chance, yet the cup's knockout nature and a modest 1.35 xG for Rostock keep the total under 2.5 goals within reach.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Under 2.5 goals Lost

Solid · Low‑scoring trend

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

67.3% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

72.2% model probability

In the first round of the DFB‑Pokal, third‑division Hansa Rostock host Bundesliga side VfB Stuttgart. The cup offers a classic David‑vs‑Goliath storyline, but the numbers tell a tighter tale than a potential giant‑killing.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Under 2.5 goals Lost Slight lean Solid · Low‑scoring trend

The combined expected‑goals tally of 3.75 is tempered by Rostock’s zero‑goal home average and Stuttgart’s recent 0‑3 loss, making a low‑scoring cup tie plausible.

Show the maths

The model’s over/under split shows 72.2% for over and 27.8% for under. Rostock’s home xG of 1.35 is modest, and Stuttgart’s away xG of 2.40 is offset by a 1.9 GA rate, suggesting they may not convert all chances. Subtracting the defensive solidity implied by the low GA from the combined xG yields a realistic goal expectation around 2.5, aligning with the under probability.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 67.3% model probability

With Hansa Rostock averaging 1.35 expected goals and VfB Stuttgart averaging 2.4, the model gives a 67.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 32.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

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BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Hansa Rostock 1.35, VfB Stuttgart 2.4) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 67.3% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 32.7% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 72.2% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.8 (Hansa Rostock 1.35 + VfB Stuttgart 2.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 72.2% chance against 27.8% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Hansa Rostock 1.35 + VfB Stuttgart 2.4 = 3.8 combined): 72.2% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 27.8% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hansa Rostock at 20.4%, the draw at 18.9%, and VfB Stuttgart at 60.6% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 9.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Hansa Rostock expected goals

1.35

VfB Stuttgart expected goals

2.4

Model BTTS probability

67.3%

Most likely scorelines

11-2

9.1%

21-1

7.6%

31-3

7.3%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the three most recent meetings, Stuttgart won twice 1‑0 (2020, 2019) and lost 0‑2 in 2018, giving a slight edge to the visitors but also proving that low‑scoring outcomes are common in this fixture.

Date	Result	Competition
13 Sep 2020	Hansa Rostock 0-1 VfB Stuttgart	DFB Pokal
12 Aug 2019	Hansa Rostock 0-1 VfB Stuttgart	DFB Pokal
18 Aug 2018	Hansa Rostock 2-0 VfB Stuttgart	DFB Pokal

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart?

VfB Stuttgart won 4-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.

What was the final score of Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart?

Hansa Rostock 0-4 VfB Stuttgart (full time).

When was Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart?

Hansa Rostock played VfB Stuttgart on Fri 21 Aug · 19:45 BST in the DFB-Pokal at Ostseestadion.

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With the model assigning a 72.2% chance of over 2.5 goals but a still‑significant 27.8% probability of staying under, the safest read is to back the goal total staying below the 2.5‑goal line.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups