SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

DFB-Pokal · Round of 64 FT · SC St. Tönis 0-11 Eintracht Frankfurt Grotenburg-Stadion

SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Eintracht Frankfurt to win

Eintracht Frankfurt head into the DFB‑Pokal tie as clear favourites, with a 50.4% win probability versus 27.3% for SC St. Tönis. The model’s xG split (1.9 vs 1.35) underpins the expected advantage.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Eintracht Frankfurt to win Won

Strong · xG advantage

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

63.0% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

63.0% model probability

The cup clash pits a Bundesliga side against a regional outfit, and the statistical gap is stark. Frankfurt’s recent league run of two losses and a draw shows vulnerability, but their scoring rate remains markedly higher than St. Tönis’ overall expected goals.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

Eintracht Frankfurt to win Won Solid lean Strong · xG advantage

The model’s 50.4% win probability, backed by a 1.9 versus 1.35 expected‑goals edge, makes Frankfurt the safe choice.

Show the maths

The model calculates win odds from each team’s expected goals: Frankfurt’s 1.9 xG compared with St. Tönis’ 1.35 gives Frankfurt a higher scoring likelihood. Converting that gap into probabilities yields 50.4% for Frankfurt, 27.3% for St. Tönis and 22.3% for a draw. The win probability exceeds a simple 50% threshold, confirming Frankfurt as the favored side.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 63.0% model probability

With SC St. Tönis averaging 1.35 expected goals and Eintracht Frankfurt averaging 1.9, the model gives a 63.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 37.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (SC St. Tönis 1.35, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.9) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 63.0% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 37.0% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 63.0% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.2 (SC St. Tönis 1.35 + Eintracht Frankfurt 1.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 63.0% chance against 37.0% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (SC St. Tönis 1.35 + Eintracht Frankfurt 1.9 = 3.2 combined): 63.0% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 37.0% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has SC St. Tönis at 27.3%, the draw at 22.3%, and Eintracht Frankfurt at 50.4% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

SC St. Tönis expected goals

1.35

Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals

1.9

Model BTTS probability

63.0%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

9.9%

21-2

9.4%

30-1

7.4%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

Eintracht Frankfurt won 11-0. Our pre-match pick was Eintracht Frankfurt to win.

What was the final score of SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

SC St. Tönis 0-11 Eintracht Frankfurt (full time).

When was SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

SC St. Tönis played Eintracht Frankfurt on Fri 21 Aug · 17:00 BST in the DFB-Pokal at Grotenburg-Stadion.

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With the probability gap favouring Frankfurt and the xG differential clear, the logical pick is a Frankfurt victory.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups