Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee: Over 2.5 goals
Hearts sit on a 3.0 expected‑goals tally while Dundee manage just 1.0, and the model places the over 2.5‑goals chance at 75.8%. The home side’s 77.1% win probability underlines the likely attacking display.
Both clubs enter the fixture with recent volatility – Hearts have turned a loss into two successive wins, and Dundee have slipped back to a loss after two straight victories. The contrast in recent results sets up a clash where the better‑performing side will likely dictate the tempo.
Hamish's Verdict
Back the over as the model gives a 75.8% chance of three or more goals, driven by Hearts’ 3.0 xG at home and Dundee’s 1.0 xG away.
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With Heart Of Midlothian averaging 3.0 expected goals and Dundee averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Heart Of Midlothian 3.0 + Dundee 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Heart Of Midlothian at 77.1%, the draw at 13.1%, and Dundee at 9.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Heart Of Midlothian
Hearts have lost 1‑2 away at Aberdeen, then bounced back with a 4‑0 home win over Dundee United and a 2‑1 home victory over St Johnstone. The two wins, especially the clean‑sheet 4‑0, show a sharp attacking edge and defensive solidity, reinforcing the expectation of several goals in this fixture.
Dundee
Dundee fell 0‑1 away to Celtic, then secured 2‑0 home wins over Aberdeen and a 2‑0 away win at Dundee United before a 1‑2 home loss to Hibernian. The two clean‑sheet wins demonstrate defensive resilience, but the limited scoring in the recent loss underlines the likelihood they’ll struggle to match Hearts’ firepower.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Hearts have won four, including a 4‑0 triumph in November 2025, while Dundee have only managed a solitary 1‑0 win in April 2025, indicating a clear advantage for Hearts in this encounter.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Dundee | Premiership |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Dundee 0-1 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 4-0 Dundee | Premiership |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 0-1 Dundee | Premiership |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 3-1 Dundee | FA Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?
Heart Of Midlothian won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 Dundee (full time).
When was Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee?
Heart Of Midlothian played Dundee on Sun 6 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Tynecastle Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →With both teams averaging a combined 4.0 expected goals and the model assigning a 75.8% probability to more than 2.5 goals, the over is the logical read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
