Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone: Over 2.5 goals
Hearts boast a season scoring rate of 4.0 expected goals versus Johnstone's 1.35, and the model assigns an 88.1% chance of over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent results – Hearts have a loss then a dominant win, while Johnstone have a narrow win followed by a clean‑sheet defeat – setting up a clash where offensive firepower is likely to dominate.
Hamish's Verdict
With an 88.1% model probability for more than two and a half goals, the statistical edge heavily favors a high‑scoring match.
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With Heart Of Midlothian averaging 4.0 expected goals and ST Johnstone averaging 1.35, the model gives a 71.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 28.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.3 (Heart Of Midlothian 4.0 + ST Johnstone 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 88.1% chance against 11.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Heart Of Midlothian at 80.7%, the draw at 9.5%, and ST Johnstone at 7.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 6.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Heart Of Midlothian
Hearts' recent form shows a 1‑2 defeat at Aberdeen (A) followed by a 4‑0 victory over Dundee United (H). The heavy win demonstrates their capacity to flood the net, reinforcing the expectation of multiple goals in the upcoming home game.
ST Johnstone
Johnstone's form features a 4‑3 win at Kilmarnock (H) and a 0‑1 loss away to St Mirren (A). The high‑scoring win hints at defensive frailties, while the recent shutout underscores their offensive struggles on the road, supporting a goal‑rich contest.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Hearts have won each encounter, including a 2‑1 win on 14 May 2025, reinforcing the pattern of Hearts scoring and conceding few goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 May 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 23 Feb 2025 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 2 Nov 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-2 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 7 Feb 2024 | ST Johnstone 0-1 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
Heart Of Midlothian won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 ST Johnstone (full time).
When was Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
Heart Of Midlothian played ST Johnstone on Sat 29 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Tynecastle Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →The combination of Hearts' prolific home scoring and Johnstone's lack of away firepower points to a goal‑laden encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
