Hellas Verona vs Virtus Entella: Virtus Entella to win
Hellas Verona's modest 0.6 xG meets Virtus Entella's 1.35 xG in the Coppa Italia, where the model backs Entella with a clear win probability. The stats point to a low‑scoring affair favoring the visitors.
Both sides enter this cup tie with contrasting recent fortunes. Verona have struggled to find the net, recording two draws and three defeats in their last five league outings, while Entella’s form is unavailable but their defensive record on the road is spotless.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Entella a 55.1% chance of victory, well above Verona’s 16.5%, reflecting the superior expected‑goal output.
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With Hellas Verona averaging 0.6 expected goals and Virtus Entella averaging 1.35, the model gives a 66.6% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 33.4% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Hellas Verona 0.6 + Virtus Entella 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 69.0% chance against 31.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hellas Verona at 16.5%, the draw at 28.3%, and Virtus Entella at 55.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 19.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Hellas Verona
Verona’s recent league run reads D‑D‑L‑D‑L, highlighted by a 0‑0 draw with Lecce at home and a 0‑2 loss to AS Roma on their own turf. The inability to score in both fixtures, combined with a defensive lapse against Roma, underscores their limited attacking threat, reinforcing why a win for Verona looks unlikely here.
Virtus Entella
Entella’s recent league form isn’t supplied, but their away defensive record shows zero goals conceded, suggesting a disciplined backline on the road. Coupled with a higher expected‑goal tally, this defensive solidity supports the expectation that they can keep Verona’s low‑scoring output in check while edging the game.
Head-to-Head
In the last two meetings, Verona won 2‑1 in 2017 and 1‑0 in 2016, but both matches featured modest scorelines, aligning with the model’s low‑over‑2.5 probability and indicating the upcoming tie may follow a similar tight pattern.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 May 2017 | Virtus Entella 1-2 Hellas Verona | Serie B |
| 19 Dec 2016 | Hellas Verona 1-0 Virtus Entella | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hellas Verona vs Virtus Entella?
Hellas Verona and Virtus Entella drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Virtus Entella to win.
What was the final score of Hellas Verona vs Virtus Entella?
Hellas Verona 2-2 Virtus Entella (full time).
When was Hellas Verona vs Virtus Entella?
Hellas Verona played Virtus Entella on Sun 16 Aug · 19:45 BST in the Coppa Italia at TBC.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Given the clear xG advantage and the model’s strong bias toward an Entella win, the safest read is to back the away side to take all three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
