Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian: Under 2.5 goals
Hibernian host Heart of Midlothian in a tightly balanced Edinburgh derby, with both sides averaging exactly one expected goal. The model sees a 67.7% chance of fewer than two and a half goals, making the under the most compelling angle.
The clash pits two clubs that have mirrored each other's scoring and defensive records all season – each team sits on a 1.0 expected‑goals mark and concedes two per game at home or away. With identical model win probabilities (34.6% each) and a modest 30.9% draw chance, the fixture is set to be a low‑scoring, tightly contested affair.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns a 67.7% chance to under 2.5 goals, reflecting the low expected‑goals output and the teams’ history of conceding two per game.
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With Hibernian averaging 1.0 expected goals and Heart Of Midlothian averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Hibernian 1.0 + Heart Of Midlothian 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hibernian at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Heart Of Midlothian at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Hibernian
Hibernian’s recent five‑game run reads L‑W, highlighted by a 1‑2 loss to Motherwell at home and a 2‑1 victory over Rangers away. The defeat shows they can be breached by a single goal, while the win demonstrates they can edge a game with just one goal ahead – both outcomes support a low‑scoring match, reinforcing the under‑2.5 pick.
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart of Midlothian also sit on an L‑W run, with a 1‑2 loss at Aberdeen and a dominant 4‑0 win against Dundee United at home. The narrow loss underscores their ability to score only once before conceding, and even the big win came from a single‑goal margin after the opposition’s early goal, again pointing to limited goal totals overall.
Head-to-Head
In the last five derbies, there have been three wins for Hearts and two for Hibs, with scorelines ranging from 1‑0 to 3‑2, but only one match produced more than two goals – the 3‑2 win for Hibs in December – suggesting a trend toward tight scorelines that backs the under‑2.5.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Hibernian 1-2 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Hibernian 3-2 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Hibernian 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Heart Of Midlothian won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Hibernian 1-3 Heart Of Midlothian (full time).
When was Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Hibernian played Heart Of Midlothian on Thu 3 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Easter Road.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given the identical expected‑goals figures and the defensive frailties on both ends, the match is likely to stay under the 2.5‑goal threshold, aligning with the model’s strongest probability.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
