Hibernian vs Kilmarnock: Kilmarnock to win
Hibernian have two wins in their last five games while Kilmarnock have none, yet the model gives the visitors a 48.8% chance to win. The xG gap (1.5 vs 1.0) and recent defensive frailties tilt the odds toward Kilmarnock.
Both sides come into this Scottish Premiership clash on opposite trajectories: Hibernian sit on a mixed run of form with two victories amid three defeats, whereas Kilmarnock have failed to win in their last five outings. The contrast in recent results sets up a clear test of who can convert chances into points.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns Kilmarnock a 48.8% win probability, the highest single‑outcome likelihood, driven by their superior xG and tighter away defence.
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With Hibernian averaging 1.0 expected goals and Kilmarnock averaging 1.5, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Hibernian 1.0 + Kilmarnock 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Hibernian at 25.2%, the draw at 26.0%, and Kilmarnock at 48.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Hibernian
Hibernian’s recent five‑game run reads L‑W‑W‑L‑L, including a 2‑1 win at Rangers and a 2‑1 victory over Dundee, showing they can breach defenses but struggle to maintain momentum. The two wins amid three losses suggest inconsistency, which undercuts their ability to sustain pressure against a side seeking a first win, reinforcing the view that a Hibernian win is less likely here.
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock have gone L‑L‑L‑L‑D in their last five, with a 0‑0 draw against Aberdeen the only point earned. Heavy defeats like 1‑5 to Celtic and 0‑4 to Dundee United underline their offensive woes, yet the lack of a win highlights a desire to snap the streak, aligning with the model’s higher win probability for them despite recent form.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Hibernian have won three (including a 3‑0 win in April) while Kilmarnock have not secured a win, indicating a historic edge for the home side that contrasts with the model’s visitor‑favoured win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Hibernian 3-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Kilmarnock 1-3 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Hibernian 2-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Kilmarnock 1-1 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 29 Dec 2024 | Hibernian 1-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
Kilmarnock won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Kilmarnock to win.
What was the final score of Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
Hibernian 0-1 Kilmarnock (full time).
When was Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
Hibernian played Kilmarnock on Tue 15 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Easter Road.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given the statistical edge and Kilmarnock’s recent inability to break a winless streak, the model’s confidence leans heavily toward the visitors pulling off the upset.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
