IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS: IF Brommapojkarna to win
Brommapojkarna’s 1.1 xG meets Orgryte’s 0.8 xG, but the home side’s 42.3 % win probability outweighs the odds. Recent form and a flawless head‑to‑head record tip the balance toward a Brommapojkarna win.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs: Brommapojkarna have struggled to find a win in their last five league outings, while Orgryte have mixed results but shown a knack for scoring. The fixture pits Brommapojkarna’s modest home scoring average against Orgryte’s poor away defence, setting up a classic home‑advantage test.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 42.3 % win probability, backed by superior home xG and Orgryte’s leaky away defence, makes a Brommapojkarna victory the clear choice.
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With IF Brommapojkarna averaging 1.1 expected goals and Orgryte IS averaging 0.8, the model gives a 63.3% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 36.7% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.9 (IF Brommapojkarna 1.1 + Orgryte IS 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 70.4% chance against 29.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IF Brommapojkarna at 42.3%, the draw at 31.3%, and Orgryte IS at 26.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 16.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IF Brommapojkarna
Brommapojkarna’s last five league results are D 1‑1 vs Gais (H), L 1‑2 vs Sirius (H), L 1‑2 vs IFK Göteborg (A), D 1‑1 vs Hammarby FF (H) and L 1‑2 vs Malmö FF (H). With three straight losses and only two draws, they have struggled to turn chances into points, highlighting the need for a win to break the slump. Their consistent 1‑1 scorelines show they can at least match opponents defensively, which supports a narrow victory.
Orgryte IS
Orgryte’s recent five games include a 4‑3 win over BK Häcken (H), a 0‑0 draw with Djurgårdens IF (H), a 0‑2 loss at Västerås SK FK (A), a 3‑0 away win over AIK Stockholm (A) and a 3‑4 home loss to AIK Stockholm (H). The mix of high‑scoring wins and a heavy loss reflects a volatile defence, especially away where they concede 2.6 goals per game, reinforcing the likelihood of a home win for Brommapojkarna.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings Brommapojkarna have won four (including a 2‑1 victory on 22 April 2026) and drawn once, with no losses, a head‑to‑head record that strongly favours a home win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | Orgryte IS 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna | Allsvenskan |
| 23 Feb 2025 | IF Brommapojkarna 3-0 Orgryte IS | Svenska Cupen |
| 5 Nov 2022 | IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 Orgryte IS | Superettan |
| 19 Jul 2022 | Orgryte IS 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna | Superettan |
| 25 Mar 2022 | IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 Orgryte IS | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
IF Brommapojkarna: M. Hansen (Red Card), K. Ackermann (Convalescence), O. Berg (Yellow Cards), D. Isso (Inactive)
Orgryte IS: A. Abukar (Knee Injury), R. Alm (Knee Injury), A. Andersson (Inactive), J. Azulay (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
IF Brommapojkarna won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was IF Brommapojkarna to win.
What was the final score of IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 Orgryte IS (full time).
When was IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
IF Brommapojkarna played Orgryte IS on Sun 16 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Grimsta IP.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →All signs point to Brommapojkarna capitalising on their home comfort and Orgryte’s defensive frailties, making a home win the most probable result.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
