IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF: IF Elfsborg to win
Elfsborg's 1.6 expected goals vs Degerfors' 1.0 set a modest edge, and the model rates an Elfsborg win at 51.3 %.
Both sides come into the clash on opposite trajectories – Elfsborg have turned a poor start into three straight wins, while Degerfors have just snapped a three‑game losing streak with two victories.
Lars's Verdict
The model's 51.3 % win probability, backed by a 0.6 xG advantage and three‑game winning streak, makes Elfsborg the logical choice.
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With IF Elfsborg averaging 1.6 expected goals and Degerfors IF averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.4% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.6% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (IF Elfsborg 1.6 + Degerfors IF 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IF Elfsborg at 51.3%, the draw at 25.0%, and Degerfors IF at 23.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IF Elfsborg
Elfsborg have lost their first two league games (0‑1 to Gais away and 1‑3 to Sirius at home) but then recorded three consecutive wins: 2‑1 away at Malmö, 1‑0 away at Mjällby and a 3‑0 home victory over Västeras SK. Those wins show a rising goal threat that underpins the pick for an Elfsborg win.
Degerfors IF
Degerfors endured three defeats (0‑4 at Hammarby, 0‑1 at Djurgårdens, 0‑2 at IFK Göteborg) before back‑to‑back wins: 2‑1 away at Malmö and 3‑0 at home versus IFK Göteborg. The recent wins improve confidence but the prior three‑goal shutouts highlight defensive frailties that favour an Elfsborg victory.
Head-to-Head
In the four recorded meetings, Elfsborg have won three (0‑1, 0‑1 and 4‑1) and lost one (1‑2), confirming a clear historical advantage that supports the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2026 | Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 27 Sep 2025 | IF Elfsborg 1-2 Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 15 Mar 2025 | IF Elfsborg 4-1 Degerfors IF | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Mar 2024 | IF Elfsborg None-None Degerfors IF | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), J. Magnusson (Yellow Cards), M. Rohden (Inactive), T. Silverholt (Inactive)
Degerfors IF: A. Berisson (Inactive), K. Karlsson (Yellow Cards), E. Lindell (Injury), J. Pikkarainen (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was IF Elfsborg to win.
What was the final score of IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg 2-0 Degerfors IF (full time).
When was IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg played Degerfors IF on Sat 29 Aug · 14:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at TBC.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →The combination of superior expected goals, recent form reversal and a head‑to‑head record that favours Elfsborg points to a clear winner.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
