IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF: IF Elfsborg to win
IF Elfsborg enter the clash with a 1.6 expected‑goals rate versus Kalmar's 0.7, and the model rates an Elfsborg win at 59 %. Kalmar's away defence concedes 1.8 per game, double what Elfsborg typically allow at home.
Both sides come in from contrasting recent runs – Elfsborg have amassed 10 points from five league outings (WWDWL), while Kalmar have gathered just two points (DLLDL). The gap in form and the home‑ground advantage set the stage for a clear hierarchy in this Allsvenskan encounter.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 59 % probability to an Elfsborg win, driven by superior expected goals and a markedly better recent record.
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With IF Elfsborg averaging 1.6 expected goals and Kalmar FF averaging 0.7, the model gives a 59.8% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (IF Elfsborg 1.6 + Kalmar FF 0.7) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IF Elfsborg at 59.0%, the draw at 24.8%, and Kalmar FF at 16.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 16.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IF Elfsborg
Elfsborg’s recent run includes a 1‑0 away win at Mjällby, a 3‑0 home thrashing of Västerås SK, and a 1‑1 draw at IFK Göteborg, before a 2‑0 home victory over Degerfors and a 1‑2 away loss to Brommapojkarna. The three wins and a draw demonstrate a potent attack and a disciplined backline, supporting the pick of a home win.
Kalmar FF
Kalmar’s last five fixtures feature a 1‑1 away draw with BK Häcken, a 2‑3 away loss to IFK Göteborg, a 0‑4 home defeat to Hammarby, a 0‑0 away draw with Västerås SK, and a 0‑1 away loss to Halmstad. Four defeats and two goalless games underline their weak away scoring and porous defence, bolstering the case for an Elfsborg win.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Kalmar have won three (2‑1 in 2026, 2‑1 in 2024, 3‑0 in 2023) and Elfsborg have won two (1‑3 in 2024, 0‑4 in 2023), with no draws. The latest 1‑3 victory for Elfsborg in September 2024 shows they can reverse the trend at home.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 2026 | Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Kalmar FF 1-3 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 22 Apr 2024 | IF Elfsborg 1-2 Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan |
| 17 Sep 2023 | IF Elfsborg 0-3 Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Kalmar FF 0-4 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), L. Hagg (Inactive), S. Holmen (Inactive), M. Rohden (Inactive)
Kalmar FF: J. Kindberg (Inactive), C. Gustafsson (Injury), A. Keita (Injury), V. Larsson (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was IF Elfsborg to win.
What was the final score of IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg 1-0 Kalmar FF (full time).
When was IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg played Kalmar FF on Sun 13 Sep · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Borås Arena.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →With the statistical advantage clear and recent form favoring the hosts, the model’s strongest signal is an Elfsborg victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
