IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK: Both teams to score - Yes
Elfsborg's modest home xG of 1.4 meets Vasteras' away xG of 1.3, setting up a clash where both sides have a realistic chance to find the net. The model's BTTS likelihood sits at 54.8%, the clearest edge among the supplied markets.
Both clubs enter the fixture with contrasting recent runs – Elfsborg have struggled to convert, while Vasteras have shown a blend of attacking flair and defensive frailty. The duel pits a team with a solid defensive record at home against a side that concedes heavily on the road.
Lars's Verdict
Both sides are expected to score, driven by comparable xG levels and Vasteras' vulnerability on the road.
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With IF Elfsborg averaging 1.4 expected goals and Vasteras SK FK averaging 1.3, the model gives a 54.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (IF Elfsborg 1.4 + Vasteras SK FK 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IF Elfsborg at 39.4%, the draw at 25.8%, and Vasteras SK FK at 34.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IF Elfsborg
Elfsborg's last five league outings read DLLLW, highlighted by a 2-2 draw at Ögryte IS and a 1-2 loss to Hammarby FF. The recent 2-1 win away at Malmö FF shows they can break through, but the three consecutive defeats underline a tendency to be shut out, reinforcing the expectation that they will still manage to score this time.
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK have posted a WWDWL sequence, with a 3-1 away win over Halmstad and a 2-0 home victory against Degerfors IF. The 0-6 loss at Djurgårdens IF demonstrates defensive fragility, while the 2-0 win at home and a goalless draw away show they can also find the net, supporting the BTTS outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the three recent meetings, the teams have produced a 2-2 draw (2026-04-11), a 1-0 win for Elfsborg (2024-11-02), and a 0-1 win for Elfsborg (2024-04-07). Only the draw featured both sides scoring, but the narrow margins suggest a tight contest, aligning with the model's BTTS probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Vasteras SK FK 2-2 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 2 Nov 2024 | IF Elfsborg 1-0 Vasteras SK FK | Allsvenskan |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Vasteras SK FK 0-1 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), L. Richtner (Elbow Injury), S. Holmen (Yellow Cards), R. Wikstrom (Injury)
Vasteras SK FK: M. Diallo (Health problems), F. Nsabiyumva (Foot Injury), J. Ring (Muscle Injury), A. Boudah (Lacking Match Fitness)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg 3-0 Vasteras SK FK (full time).
When was IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg played Vasteras SK FK on Fri 14 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at TBC.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →The statistical balance points to both sides scoring, making the BTTS market the logical focus.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
