IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg: Both teams to score - Yes
IFK Goteborg host IF Elfsborg in a tightly balanced Allsvenskan clash, with the model assigning a 54.8% chance both sides will find the net.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs – Goteborg have been erratic, while Elfsborg have surged with three wins from five, setting up a duel where each side’s defensive frailties could be exposed.
Lars's Verdict
Given the combined expected goals of 2.7 and a BTTS probability of 54.8%, both sides are likely to breach the net.
Show the maths
With IFK Goteborg averaging 1.4 expected goals and IF Elfsborg averaging 1.3, the model gives a 54.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (IFK Goteborg 1.4 + IF Elfsborg 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IFK Goteborg at 39.4%, the draw at 25.8%, and IF Elfsborg at 34.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IFK Goteborg
Goteborg’s last five league results read WLWWL, highlighted by a 2‑1 home win over IF Brommapojkarna and a 3‑2 home victory against Kalmar FF. Those wins show they can score multiple goals at home, which feeds directly into the expectation that they will find the net against Elfsborg.
IF Elfsborg
Elfsborg’s recent form LLWWW includes a 2‑1 away win at Malmo FF and a 3‑0 home win versus Vasteras SK FK, demonstrating a surge in scoring potency. Their three‑game winning streak indicates they are likely to continue putting goals past Goteborg’s defence.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Elfsborg have won three times, including a 2‑0 win on 6 April 2026, while Goteborg have only scored in two of those matches (a 1‑2 loss on 12 July 2025 and a 1‑0 win on 1 June 2024). The mixed record still shows Elfsborg capable of scoring, aligning with the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 28 Jul 2025 | IF Elfsborg 4-3 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 12 Jul 2025 | IFK Goteborg 1-2 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 25 Aug 2024 | IF Elfsborg 3-1 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 1 Jun 2024 | IFK Goteborg 1-0 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
IFK Goteborg: G. Ersoy (Muscle Injury), M. Fenger (Inactive), A. Mucolli (Knee Injury), T. Heintz (Yellow Cards)
IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), M. Rohden (Inactive), T. Silverholt (Inactive), L. Richtner (Elbow Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg 1-1 IF Elfsborg (full time).
When was IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg played IF Elfsborg on Sun 23 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Gamla Ullevi.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →With both teams averaging above a goal per game and the BTTS model probability just over 54%, the evidence points toward both sides scoring.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
