Ipswich vs Liverpool: No clear favourite
Ipswich host Liverpool in a Premier League clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 2.0, and the model splits the win probability evenly at 39.6% each.
Both clubs come into the game with contrasting recent trajectories – Ipswich have only a single win in their last five league outings, while Liverpool have endured two defeats and three draws, leaving little momentum on either side.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s win probabilities are identical at 39.6% for each side, and the draw sits at only 20.7%, offering no decisive statistical advantage to either team.
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With Ipswich averaging 2.0 expected goals and Liverpool averaging 2.0, the model gives a 74.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 25.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Ipswich 2.0 + Liverpool 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 76.1% chance against 23.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ipswich at 39.6%, the draw at 20.7%, and Liverpool at 39.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 7.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ipswich
Ipswich’s recent form is limited to a solitary win – a 2‑1 victory over Sunderland at home – which demonstrates they can find the net but also concede. Their home goals‑for average of 2.0 underscores a decent attacking output, while the 1.0 goals‑against average hints at defensive solidity, though the recent win shows they are not impermeable. With only one result to draw from, the trend suggests a balanced but not overwhelming home advantage for this pick.
Liverpool
Liverpool’s last five league games include a 2‑3 loss at Manchester United, a 1‑1 draw with Chelsea, a 2‑4 defeat at Aston Villa, a 1‑1 stalemate with Brentford, and a 2‑2 draw versus Newcastle. The two defeats and three draws reveal a team struggling to convert chances into wins away from Anfield, while the multiple draws (especially the 1‑1 scores) illustrate a pattern of sharing points, which weakens their win probability for this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In their two most recent meetings, Liverpool have won comfortably – 4‑1 in January 2025 and 2‑0 in August 2024 – reinforcing a historical edge that aligns with the model’s balanced win odds.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2025 | Liverpool 4-1 Ipswich | Premier League |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
Team News (Pregame)
Ipswich: Florentino (Inactive), A. Matusiwa (Injury), J. Taylor (Knee Injury)
Liverpool: S. Bajcetic (Hamstring Injury), C. Bradley (Knee Injury), F. Chiesa (Back Injury), H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Liverpool won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was No clear favourite.
What was the final score of Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool (full time).
When was Ipswich vs Liverpool?
Ipswich played Liverpool on Fri 4 Sep · 20:00 BST in the Premier League at Portman Road.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →With both teams averaging the same expected goals and the model offering no clear edge, the fixture is poised to be a tightly contested affair where the result hinges on who can better exploit the marginal defensive lapses.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
