Kasımpaşa vs Amed: Both teams to score - No
Kasımpaşa's modest 1.0 expected goals clash with Amed's 1.35 threat, yet the model backs a clean‑sheet scenario. The numbers point to a low‑scoring affair without both sides finding the net.
Both clubs enter the Süper Lig meeting with contrasting recent fortunes. Kasımpaşa have edged two wins out of five, while Amed have split their limited five‑game run with a win and a loss, leaving the balance of quality uncertain.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s BTTS probability sits at 46.8 % for Yes versus 53.2 % for No, indicating a slight edge for a clean‑sheet outcome.
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With Kasımpaşa averaging 1.0 expected goals and Amed averaging 1.35, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Kasımpaşa 1.0 + Amed 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Kasımpaşa at 27.7%, the draw at 27.5%, and Amed at 44.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa’s recent five results include a 2‑3 loss at Gençlerbirliği, a 1‑0 win over Galatasaray, a 1‑1 draw with Trabzonspor, a 1‑0 win at Çorum FK and a 1‑1 draw at Başakşehir. The two clean‑sheet wins (both 1‑0) show they can keep opponents to nil, but the three games where they conceded a goal underline a mixed defensive record that supports a no‑BTTS outcome.
Amed
Amed’s last two league outings comprise a 3‑0 home victory over Erzurumspor and a 0‑2 away loss to Kocaelispor. Scoring three at home but failing to hit the net away highlights their struggle to find goals on the road, aligning with the model’s lower BTTS probability.
Team News (Pregame)
Kasımpaşa: K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Amed: M. Yildirim (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Kasımpaşa and Amed drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Kasımpaşa 2-2 Amed (full time).
When was Kasımpaşa vs Amed?
Kasımpaşa played Amed on Sun 6 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With the model assigning a 53.2 % probability to both sides not scoring and a 58.3 % chance the match stays under 2.5 goals, the most reliable read is a game without BTTS.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
