Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor: Kasımpaşa to win
Kasımpaşa's 1.5 expected goals and a 48.8% win probability give them a clear edge over a struggling Konyaspor, whose recent form has been a string of defeats.
Both sides come into the fixture with contrasting fortunes: Kasımpaşa have managed a win, a draw, and three defeats in their last five league outings, while Konyaspor have lost all four of their recent matches. The home side's modest scoring rate and defensive parity set the stage for a tight contest.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Kasımpaşa a 48.8% chance of victory, the strongest single-market probability, backed by a superior xG rating and Konyaspor’s recent slump.
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With Kasımpaşa averaging 1.5 expected goals and Konyaspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Kasımpaşa 1.5 + Konyaspor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Kasımpaşa at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Konyaspor at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa’s recent results include a 1-0 win over Galatasaray at home and a 2-2 draw with Amed, showing they can both keep a clean sheet and find the net. Their mixed form (WDWDD) indicates resilience, which supports a home win in this fixture.
Konyaspor
Konyaspor have not secured a point in their last four league games, losing 0-1 to Rizespor, 2-4 to Fenerbahçe, 1-2 to Kocaelispor and 0-1 to Erzurumspor FK. This run of defeats highlights a lack of attacking threat and defensive solidity, undermining their chances of an upset.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have produced three draws (including a 1-1 in March 2026) and two wins for Konyaspor, but the prevalence of draws suggests a tight game; however, Kasımpaşa’s home advantage tilts the balance toward a win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Kasımpaşa 1-1 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Konyaspor 3-3 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Kasımpaşa 2-3 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 13 Apr 2024 | Kasımpaşa 0-2 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
Team News
Kasımpaşa: K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury), T. Diarra (Inactive), A. Baldursson (Injury), H. Hajradinovic (Inactive)
Konyaspor: E. Bardhi (Red Card), B. Gungordu (Injury), A. Ndao (Suspended)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa to win. The model assigns Kasımpaşa a 48.8% chance of victory, the strongest single-market probability, backed by a superior xG rating and Konyaspor’s recent slump.
What does the model give Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Kasımpaşa a 48.8% chance, the draw 26.0%, and Konyaspor 25.2% to win.
When is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor on Fri 18 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
Are there any injury concerns for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa: K. Corekci (Achilles Tendon Injury), T. Diarra (Inactive), A. Baldursson (Injury), H. Hajradinovic (Inactive). Konyaspor: E. Bardhi (Red Card), B. Gungordu (Injury), A. Ndao (Suspended). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the scoring gap, the home team's higher win probability, and Konyaspor’s inability to stop conceding, the logical read points to a Kasımpaşa win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
