Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor: Both teams to score - Yes
Kasımpaşa host Trabzonspor in a Süper Lig clash where both sides average 1.35 expected goals, and the model rates the chance of both teams finding the net at 54.9%. Recent form and a balanced head‑to‑head record point to an open game.
Both clubs come into the fixture with identical expected‑goal figures, suggesting neither side holds a clear scoring advantage. The match pits Kasımpaşa’s home resilience against a Trabzonspor side that has struggled to keep clean sheets on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 54.9% probability that both sides will score reflects their recent form and balanced expected‑goal output.
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With Kasımpaşa averaging 1.35 expected goals and Trabzonspor averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Kasımpaşa 1.35 + Trabzonspor 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Kasımpaşa at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Trabzonspor at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa’s recent five‑game stretch includes a 1‑0 home win over Alanyaspor and a 2‑3 away loss to Gençlerbirliği, indicating they can find the net but also leak goals. The 1‑0 win demonstrates their ability to score in tight games, while the 2‑3 defeat shows a propensity to concede, supporting the expectation that both sides will likely score.
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor’s last five fixtures feature a 2‑1 away victory at Beşiktaş and a 0‑3 home loss to Gençlerbirliği, highlighting a mix of scoring capability and defensive vulnerability. The win against Beşiktaş proves they can score on the road, whereas the heavy home defeat underlines their susceptibility to conceding, both pointing toward a BTTS outcome.
Head-to-Head
The recent head‑to‑head record shows three of the last five meetings ending with both teams scoring (1‑1 in 2025, 2‑2 in 2024, and 2‑3 in 2024), reinforcing the BTTS probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | Trabzonspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Kasımpaşa 0-1 Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 5 May 2025 | Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Trabzonspor 2-2 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Trabzonspor 2-3 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa and Trabzonspor drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor (full time).
When was Kasımpaşa vs Trabzonspor?
Kasımpaşa played Trabzonspor on Sat 15 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →That blend of scoring potential and defensive frailty makes the both‑teams‑to‑score market the most compelling read for this encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
