Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren: St Mirren to win
Kilmarnock's defensive frailties at home clash with St Mirren's spotless away record, and the model backs Mirren to take all three points.
Both sides enter the match on opposite form trajectories – Kilmarnock have slipped to a single win in their last five, while St Mirren sit on a flawless three‑game winning streak. The contrast in recent results sets the tone for a decisive encounter at Rugby Park.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns a 60.5% win probability to Mirren, reflecting their superior away xG and Kilmarnock's defensive record.
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With Kilmarnock averaging 1.0 expected goals and ST Mirren averaging 2.0, the model gives a 54.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Kilmarnock 1.0 + ST Mirren 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Kilmarnock at 18.3%, the draw at 21.2%, and ST Mirren at 60.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 10.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock's recent run reads W‑L‑L, highlighted by a 4‑1 away win over Livingston and a 1‑5 home loss to Celtic. The heavy defeat at home underlines defensive issues, reinforcing why the model sees Mirren as the stronger side in this fixture.
ST Mirren
St Mirren have won all three of their latest matches, including a 1‑0 home victory over Partick and a 2‑0 away win at Falkirk. Consistent clean sheets and scoring on the road bolster the expectation of an away win here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Mirren have yet to win, losing 0‑3 and 0‑2, drawing twice (0‑0 and 2‑2), and losing a 4‑3 thriller – the head‑to‑head trend favours Kilmarnock, but the model still backs Mirren given current form and stats.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 9 May 2026 | ST Mirren 0-3 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 11 Feb 2026 | Kilmarnock 4-3 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 27 Dec 2025 | ST Mirren 0-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Kilmarnock 2-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 19 Sep 2025 | Kilmarnock 2-2 ST Mirren | League Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
ST Mirren won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was St Mirren to win.
What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
Kilmarnock 0-1 ST Mirren (full time).
When was Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren?
Kilmarnock played ST Mirren on Wed 2 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Rugby Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →With the away side's attack outpacing the home side's leaky defence, the data points squarely to a Mirren victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
