Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor: Trabzonspor to win
Konyaspor’s four‑game losing streak meets a Trabzonspor side that has scored twice as often on the road. The model gives the visitors a 47% chance to take all three points.
Both clubs are coming in with very different recent trajectories – Konyaspor have dropped their last four league matches, while Trabzonspor have rebounded with a win and a draw in their last four. The contrast in form sets up a clear underdog versus favorite dynamic for this Süper Lig encounter.
Lars's Verdict
With an expected‑goals advantage of 0.5 and a model win probability of 47% versus Konyaspor’s 18%, the visitors are the logical choice to secure three points.
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With Konyaspor averaging 0.5 expected goals and Trabzonspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 75.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 24.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.5 (Konyaspor 0.5 + Trabzonspor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 80.9% chance against 19.1% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Konyaspor at 18.1%, the draw at 34.9%, and Trabzonspor at 47.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 22.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Konyaspor
Konyaspor have lost all four of their recent league games, highlighted by a 0‑1 home loss to Rizespor and a 2‑4 away defeat at Fenerbahçe. Those results underline a lack of offensive firepower and defensive frailty, which diminishes their chance of overcoming the visitors in this match.
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor’s last four league outings include a 1‑1 draw away at Kasımpaşa and a 2‑1 home win over Başakşehir, followed by a 1‑2 loss at Amed and a dominant 5‑0 home victory over Gençlerbirliği. The win and draw demonstrate they can both score and hold onto points, supporting a positive outlook for a win here.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent head‑to‑head, Trabzonspor edged Konyaspor 2‑1 in May 2026, while the previous meeting saw Konyaspor win 2‑1. The latest result favors the visitors, aligning with the model’s win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | Trabzonspor 2-1 Konyaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Trabzonspor 3-1 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 3 Mar 2025 | Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor | Süper Lig |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Trabzonspor 3-2 Konyaspor | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Konyaspor: E. Bardhi (Red Card), B. Gungordu (Injury), A. Ndao (Suspended)
Trabzonspor: A. Batagov (Knee Injury), T. Jabol-Folcarelli (Knee Injury), R. Malinovskyi (Inactive), N. Saviolo (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Trabzonspor to win.
What was the final score of Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor (full time).
When was Konyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Konyaspor played Trabzonspor on Sat 12 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →The statistical gap in expected goals, combined with the visitors’ recent positive results, points to a clear advantage for Trabzonspor.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
