Lecce vs Monza: Lecce to win
Lecce's 1.35 expected goals edge Monza's 1.0, and the model rates a 44.8% chance of a home win. The recent form and head‑to‑head record tip the balance toward the hosts.
Both sides enter the clash with contrasting recent results – Lecce have collected three wins from their last four league outings, while Monza have stumbled to two defeats and a draw. The fixture pits Lecce's attacking edge against a Monza side that has struggled to keep clean sheets away from home.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Lecce a 44.8% win probability, outpacing Monza's 27.7% and reflecting their superior expected goals and recent form.
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With Lecce averaging 1.35 expected goals and Monza averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Lecce 1.35 + Monza 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lecce at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Monza at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Lecce
Lecce have won three of their last four league games, including a 3‑2 away victory over Sassuolo and a 1‑0 home win against Genoa. Their only recent loss came 0‑4 to AS Roma at home, but the three wins demonstrate a potent attack that aligns with the model's higher expected goals, reinforcing the likelihood of another win.
Monza
Monza's recent run features two defeats – 1‑4 away at Inter and 2‑3 at home to Udinese – plus a 1‑1 away draw with Parma. The two losses, both by multiple goals, highlight defensive vulnerabilities that dovetail with their lower expected goals and support a reduced chance of an away win.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Lecce have won twice (2‑1 at home in Dec 2024 and 1‑0 away in May 2023) and the other three matches ended in draws (0‑0, 1‑1, 1‑1), indicating a slight home advantage that aligns with the pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Feb 2025 | Monza 0-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Lecce 2-1 Monza | Serie A |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Lecce 1-1 Monza | Serie A |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Monza 1-1 Lecce | Serie A |
| 28 May 2023 | Monza 0-1 Lecce | Serie A |
Team News
Lecce: W. Geubbels (Injury), L. Banda (Inactive), M. Berisha (Thigh Injury)
Monza: P. Ciurria (Inactive), M. Pessina (Knee Injury), I. Toure (Contusion), G. Varela (Thigh Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce to win. The model assigns Lecce a 44.8% win probability, outpacing Monza's 27.7% and reflecting their superior expected goals and recent form.
What does the model give Lecce vs Monza?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Lecce a 44.8% chance, the draw 27.5%, and Monza 27.7% to win.
When is Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce play Monza on Sun 13 Sep · 14:00 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Via del Mare.
Are there any injury concerns for Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce: W. Geubbels (Injury), L. Banda (Inactive), M. Berisha (Thigh Injury). Monza: P. Ciurria (Inactive), M. Pessina (Knee Injury), I. Toure (Contusion), G. Varela (Thigh Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →All signs point to Lecce capitalising on their higher scoring probability and recent winning momentum, making a home victory the most credible outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
