Leeds vs Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace to win
Leeds' modest 1.0 xG at home meets Crystal Palace's 1.5 away xG, and the model backs Palace to win at 48.8% probability.
Both sides come into the match with uneven recent form – Leeds have only managed a single win in three league outings, while Palace have struggled to a trio of defeats in four games.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Palace a 48.8% chance of victory versus Leeds' 25.2%, reflecting the superior away xG and Leeds' limited recent scoring output.
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With Leeds averaging 1.0 expected goals and Crystal Palace averaging 1.5, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Leeds 1.0 + Crystal Palace 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Leeds at 25.2%, the draw at 26.0%, and Crystal Palace at 48.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Leeds
Leeds' recent league form shows a win and two draws: a 1‑0 win at Nottingham Forest, a 1‑1 draw with Brentford at home, and a 1‑1 draw away at Brighton. The narrow scorelines indicate limited attacking firepower, which aligns with the modest 1.0 xG and supports the view that Leeds are unlikely to outscore Palace.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace have recorded a 3‑2 win away at Fulham but also suffered a 0‑2 loss at Everton, a 1‑4 defeat at home to Manchester City, and a 2‑3 loss at home to Ipswich. The three defeats highlight defensive issues, yet the win against Fulham shows they can score, reinforcing the model's higher away xG of 1.5.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Palace have drawn 0‑0 in March 2026 and won 5‑1 in April 2023, while Leeds enjoyed a 4‑1 win in December 2025, indicating a mixed record but recent Palace success supports the pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Leeds 4-1 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 9 Apr 2023 | Leeds 1-5 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 9 Oct 2022 | Crystal Palace 2-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| 22 Jul 2022 | Crystal Palace 1-1 Leeds | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Leeds: M. Joseph (Knee Injury), J. Rodon (Muscle Injury), I. Gruev (Knee Injury), W. Gnonto (Hamstring Injury)
Crystal Palace: J. Mateta (Hamstring Injury), E. Nketiah (Injury), C. Riad (Knee Injury), I. Sarr (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds and Crystal Palace drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Crystal Palace to win.
What was the final score of Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace (full time).
When was Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
Leeds played Crystal Palace on Sun 20 Sep · 14:00 BST in the Premier League at Elland Road.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →The combination of higher expected goals for Palace and Leeds' inability to convert chances into multiple goals points to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
