Lillestrom vs Rosenborg: Lillestrom to win
Lillestrom's expected 2.0 goals versus Rosenborg's 0.7 gives the model a 67.9% win probability, while the market only offers a 27.0% chance of a draw at 3.7.
Both sides enter the fixture with contrasting recent form – Lillestrom have slipped to three defeats in five, whereas Rosenborg sit on a three‑win run after a solitary draw.
Lars's Verdict
Back Lillestrom on the match‑result market – the model’s 67.9% win probability dwarfs the market’s 27.0% draw price.
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With Lillestrom averaging 2.0 expected goals and Rosenborg averaging 0.7, the model gives a 56.5% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 43.5% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Lillestrom 2.0 + Rosenborg 0.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Lillestrom at 67.9%, the draw at 20.0%, and Rosenborg at 12.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Lillestrom
Lillestrom’s last five results are L‑0‑2 at Ham‑Kam, W‑2‑0 at Fredrikstad, W‑2‑1 vs KFUM Oslo, L‑1‑2 versus Viking and L‑0‑4 at Bodo/Glimt. The two recent defeats, especially the 0‑4 loss, show defensive frailties but the two wins, including a 2‑0 away win, demonstrate they can still find the net – supporting a home win despite recent setbacks.
Rosenborg
Rosenborg have drawn 2‑2 with Bodo/Glimt, then won 3‑0 against Kristiansund, 3‑0 at Start, 4‑0 versus Fredrikstad and fell 2‑3 to Brann. Three straight clean‑sheet victories highlight strong attacking form, yet the latest loss reveals a potential vulnerability that Lillestrom can exploit at home.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Rosenborg won 2‑0 (2026) and 4‑0 (2024), Lillestrom won 3‑0 (2023) and 2‑1 (2023), and there was a 1‑1 draw (2024) – a split record that leans slightly towards Rosenborg but does not outweigh Lillestrom’s current statistical edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Lillestrom 1-1 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Rosenborg 4-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Lillestrom 3-0 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 9 Jul 2023 | Rosenborg 1-2 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Lillestrom: E. B. Garnas (Injury), C. Jebara (Injury), E. Kitolano (Broken Leg), L. Alperud (Ankle Injury)
Rosenborg: I. Fossum (Thigh Injury), D. Islamovic (Leg Injury), A. Chiakha (Knee Injury), S. Nordli (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Rosenborg won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Lillestrom to win.
What was the final score of Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Lillestrom 0-2 Rosenborg (full time).
When was Lillestrom vs Rosenborg?
Lillestrom played Rosenborg on Sun 9 Aug · 13:30 BST in the Eliteserien at TBC.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →The combination of a high home xG, a low away xG, and a market price that undervalues a Lillestrom victory points to clear value on the home side.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
