Liverpool vs Fulham: Over 2.5 goals
Liverpool's 2.0 xG versus Fulham's 1.35 xG sets a clear goal‑rich clash, with the model putting a 65% chance on over 2.5 goals.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form – Liverpool have turned a run of draws into a win, while Fulham have endured three straight defeats. The disparity in expected goals underlines a match where scoring opportunities will be plentiful.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 65% chance to over 2.5 goals, driven by Liverpool’s 2.0 xG and Fulham’s 1.35 xG, suggesting enough firepower for at least three goals.
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With Liverpool averaging 2.0 expected goals and Fulham averaging 1.35, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (Liverpool 2.0 + Fulham 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Liverpool at 52.5%, the draw at 21.7%, and Fulham at 25.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Liverpool
Liverpool’s last five league results read L‑D‑D‑D‑W, with a 2‑0 loss at Aston Villa, a 1‑1 draw against Brentford, and a 2‑2 stalemate with Newcastle. The recent 2‑0 win at Ipswich shows they can break the dead‑lock, implying the attack is finally clicking – a factor that pushes the goal total upwards.
Fulham
Fulham have lost three consecutive league games: 2‑3 at home to Chelsea, 0‑1 away to Sunderland, and 2‑3 at home to Crystal Palace. Each defeat involved conceding at least two goals, indicating defensive frailty that will likely add to the overall goal tally.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Liverpool have won twice (2‑0 on 11 April 2026 and 1‑3 on 21 April 2024) and drawn twice (2‑2 on 4 January 2026 and 2‑2 on 14 December 2024), with one Fulham win (3‑2 on 6 April 2025). The mixed results still show Liverpool scoring in most fixtures, supporting a higher goal count.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2026 | Liverpool 2-0 Fulham | Premier League |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Fulham 2-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 6 Apr 2025 | Fulham 3-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 14 Dec 2024 | Liverpool 2-2 Fulham | Premier League |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Fulham 1-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
Team News (Pregame)
Liverpool: C. Bradley (Knee Injury), F. Chiesa (Back Injury), H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury), J. Gomez (Injury)
Fulham: T. Cairney (Knee Injury), L. De Fougerolles (Injury), J. Andersen (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool and Fulham drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool 0-0 Fulham (full time).
When was Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool played Fulham on Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Premier League at Anfield.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →Given the xG gap and the pattern of multiple goals in recent Liverpool matches, the most likely outcome is a goal‑filled encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
