Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: Both teams to score - Yes
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest arrive with identical expected‑goals of 1.35, yet the model rates a goal from each side at 54.9%. Both teams have shown a propensity to concede, making both‑teams‑to‑score the strongest signal.
Liverpool host Nottingham Forest in a Premier League clash where recent form offers little comfort for either side. Both clubs have struggled to keep clean sheets, and the model’s expected‑goals line sits perfectly on the parity line.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s BTTS probability sits at 54.9%, the highest among the offered markets, and recent defensive lapses support that both sides are likely to hit the net.
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With Liverpool averaging 1.35 expected goals and Nottingham Forest averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Liverpool 1.35 + Nottingham Forest 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Liverpool at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Nottingham Forest at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Liverpool
Liverpool’s recent run includes a 3‑1 win over Crystal Palace, a 2‑3 loss at Manchester United, a 1‑1 draw with Chelsea, a 2‑4 defeat at Aston Villa, and a 1‑1 draw versus Brentford. Conceding three or more goals in two of those matches shows a vulnerability at the back, which directly feeds into the likelihood of both sides scoring in this fixture.
Nottingham Forest
Forest’s latest league result is a 0‑1 home loss to Leeds, a narrow defeat that still saw them fail to keep a clean sheet. Though only one match is listed, the fact that they conceded despite a clean offensive showing points to a defensive weakness that aligns with the BTTS prediction.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Liverpool have won 0‑1 twice, Forest have won 0‑1 once and 0‑3 once, and there has been one 1‑1 draw, indicating both sides have regularly scored in recent encounters, supporting the BTTS market.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2 Mar 2024 | Nottingham Forest 0-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
Team News (Pregame)
Liverpool: C. Bradley (Knee Injury), H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury), J. Gomez (Injury), G. Leoni (Knee Injury)
Nottingham Forest: N. Savona (Knee Injury), R. Yates (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest (full time).
When was Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Liverpool played Nottingham Forest on Sat 29 Aug · 12:30 BST in the Premier League at Anfield.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →Given the defensive frailties and the balanced scoring outlook, the most logical bet is that both sides will score.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
