Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg: IF Elfsborg to win
Mjallby AIF host IF Elfsborg in a tightly contested Allsvenskan clash. The model rates Elfsborg's win probability at 43.4 % – the clear edge in this fixture.
Both sides arrive with modest form; Mjallby have failed to secure a win in their last four league outings, while Elfsborg have collected just one victory in five. The match therefore hinges on which team can translate their expected goal output into a decisive result.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Elfsborg a 43.4 % chance to win, the highest single probability among all outcomes, making this the most defensible selection.
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With Mjallby AIF averaging 1.0 expected goals and IF Elfsborg averaging 1.3, the model gives a 54.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Mjallby AIF 1.0 + IF Elfsborg 1.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Mjallby AIF at 28.6%, the draw at 28.0%, and IF Elfsborg at 43.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 13.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby’s recent form reads D‑L‑D‑L, with a 4‑4 draw at Sirius and a 0‑0 stalemate against Vasteras highlighting defensive solidity but limited offensive punch. Their two losses, 1‑2 to AIK and 1‑2 to Kalmar, show a pattern of conceding twice without finding the net, which dampens their chances of snatching a win here.
IF Elfsborg
Elfsborg’s last five results are D‑L‑L‑L‑W, featuring a 2‑2 draw at Orgryte and a 1‑3 home defeat to Sirius that exposed defensive frailties. The recent 2‑1 away win over Malmo signals a potential bounce‑back, yet three consecutive losses underscore inconsistency, reinforcing the view that a single win is plausible but not guaranteed.
Head-to-Head
The head‑to‑head record shows three draws (1‑1, 2‑2, 1‑1) and two wins split evenly, with Elfsborg winning 1‑0 in 2025 and Mjallby winning 2‑0 in 2025, indicating a balanced rivalry that does not strongly favor either side.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 May 2026 | IF Elfsborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF | Allsvenskan |
| 4 Oct 2025 | Mjallby AIF 2-0 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
| 19 Jun 2025 | IF Elfsborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF | Friendlies Clubs |
| 30 Mar 2025 | IF Elfsborg 2-2 Mjallby AIF | Allsvenskan |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Mjallby AIF 1-1 IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
Mjallby AIF: V. Gustafson (Yellow Cards), J. Gustavsson (Yellow Cards), T. Stavitski (Inactive), A. Iqbal (Yellow Cards)
IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), L. Richtner (Elbow Injury), S. Holmen (Yellow Cards), R. Wikstrom (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was IF Elfsborg to win.
What was the final score of Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg (full time).
When was Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF played IF Elfsborg on Sat 8 Aug · 16:30 BST in the Allsvenskan at Strandvallen.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →Given Elfsborg’s superior expected goal figure and the narrow margin of their recent results, the model tilts toward an Elfsborg victory despite the overall tight probabilities.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
