NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior: Both teams to score - Yes
Excelsior arrive with a four‑goal a game average while NEC have struggled to find the net at home, making a high‑scoring result almost inevitable.
Both sides enter this Eredivisie clash after contrasting recent runs – NEC have turned a loss into two consecutive wins, yet their home numbers remain poor, whereas Excelsior have been prolific away, scoring four goals per match on average.
Lars's Verdict
Given Excelsior’s 4.0 xG away rate and NEC’s 1.0 home xG, both sides are likely to breach each other’s defenses.
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With NEC Nijmegen averaging 1.0 expected goals and Excelsior averaging 4.0, the model gives a 60.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (NEC Nijmegen 1.0 + Excelsior 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 85.4% chance against 14.6% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has NEC Nijmegen at 4.7%, the draw at 7.6%, and Excelsior at 85.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-3 at 7.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
NEC Nijmegen
NEC’s recent league form shows a loss to Telstar (1‑2) followed by impressive away wins: 4‑1 at Willem II and 3‑1 at PEC Zwolle. The win‑heavy stretch demonstrates attacking capability, which supports the notion they will score despite being the underdog.
Excelsior
Excelsior’s five‑game run includes a 1‑1 draw at home to Volendam, a 3‑2 win away at Sparta Rotterdam, a 4‑0 away thrashing of Cambuur, a 1‑2 home loss to PSV, and a 2‑1 home win over Sparta Rotterdam. The three away victories, especially the four‑goal display at Cambuur, underscore their scoring potency on the road.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head meets favor NEC historically, with a 5‑0 win in 2025 and a 2‑0 win in 2026, but the most recent 2023‑08‑13 encounter ended 4‑3 to Excelsior, hinting that both sides can score when Excelsior is in form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 9 Aug 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 5-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 6 May 2024 | Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 13 Aug 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 3-4 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| 19 Feb 2023 | Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
NEC Nijmegen: A. Kaplan (Knee Injury), D. Nejasmic (Inactive), S. Ouaissa (Muscle Injury), P. Sandler (Injury)
Excelsior: N. Naujoks (Inactive), K. Bos (Shoulder Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Excelsior (full time).
When was NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
NEC Nijmegen played Excelsior on Tue 8 Sep · 17:45 BST in the Eredivisie at Goffertstadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →The statistical imbalance points to both teams finding the net, a conclusion reinforced by the model’s 60.7% BTTS probability.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
