NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord: Over 2.5 goals
NEC Nijmegen host Feyenoord with the model assigning NEC a 9.4% win chance and Feyenoord a 77.1% win chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for NEC and 3.0 for Feyenoord, pointing to a high‑scoring affair.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent form: NEC have bounced back from an opening loss to notch two convincing wins, while Feyenoord sit on a mixed run of three wins and two draws. The fixture pits NEC’s modest home defence against Feyenoord’s potent away attack.
Lars's Verdict
The model forecasts a 75.8% chance of more than 2.5 goals, reflecting Feyenoord’s 3.0 expected goals and NEC’s defensive frailties.
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With NEC Nijmegen averaging 1.0 expected goals and Feyenoord averaging 3.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (NEC Nijmegen 1.0 + Feyenoord 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has NEC Nijmegen at 9.4%, the draw at 13.1%, and Feyenoord at 77.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-2 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
NEC Nijmegen
NEC’s recent league run includes a 4-1 win away at Willem II and a 3-1 win away at PEC Zwolle, both after an opening 1-2 loss to Telstar. Those two convincing victories show NEC can score, but the earlier defeat and a home goals-against average of 2.0 suggest they remain vulnerable, supporting a high‑scoring match.
Feyenoord
Feyenoord have recorded a 2-0 win away at PEC Zwolle, a 1-0 win away at Sparta Rotterdam, and a 5-2 away triumph over Cambuur, interspersed with two 2-2 draws at home. The three away wins underline their ability to find the net on the road, reinforcing the over‑2.5‑goals outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the scores were 1-1, 2-4, 0-0, 1-1, and 2-3, averaging three goals per game, which aligns with the over‑2.5‑goals expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Feyenoord 2-4 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Feyenoord 0-0 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 28 Sep 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| 12 May 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
NEC Nijmegen: A. Kaplan (Knee Injury), D. Nejasmic (Inactive), S. Ouaissa (Muscle Injury), P. Sandler (Injury)
Feyenoord: T. Beelen (Broken Leg), J. Bos (Knee Injury), J. Moder (Knee Injury), B. Nieuwkoop (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
Feyenoord won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Feyenoord (full time).
When was NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord?
NEC Nijmegen played Feyenoord on Sat 5 Sep · 15:30 BST in the Eredivisie at Goffertstadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →Given the clear xG advantage and the historical trend toward multiple goals, the most logical market is the total‑goals line.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
