Newcastle vs Hull City: Newcastle to win
Newcastle average 2.0 expected goals at home against Hull's 1.5 away, and the model assigns a 49.3% chance of a Newcastle win. Both sides boast solid recent form, but the Magpies' home edge and higher xG tilt the balance.
The Magpies host Hull City after a mixed spell of draws and a win, while the Tigers arrive on the back of two consecutive victories. Injuries to key Newcastle men – Burn, Joelinton, Osula and Dedic – could thin the ranks, yet the side still fields a potent attack, whereas Hull’s absences include Ansah and Butland among others.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 49.3% win probability, combined with Newcastle’s superior home xG and recent form, makes a home victory the most likely result.
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With Newcastle averaging 2.0 expected goals and Hull City averaging 1.5, the model gives a 67.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 32.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Newcastle 2.0 + Hull City 1.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.9% chance against 32.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Newcastle at 49.3%, the draw at 21.6%, and Hull City at 29.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Newcastle
Newcastle’s last five league outings produced a D‑W‑D pattern: a 2‑2 draw with Liverpool at home, a 2‑0 win away at Tottenham, and another 2‑2 home stalemate with Bournemouth. The draws show they can leak goals, yet the win against Tottenham underlines their ability to break through, supporting a home win forecast.
Hull City
Hull City arrived with a WWDD run: a 2‑0 home win over Manchester United, a 1‑0 away victory at Coventry, followed by a 0‑0 home draw with Aston Villa and a 2‑2 away draw at Chelsea. The two wins demonstrate attacking potency, but the recent draws indicate a tightening defence, meaning they are less likely to overturn a Newcastle lead.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent meeting on 27 July 2024, Hull fell 0‑2 at home to Newcastle, echoing earlier 3‑0 and 4‑1 victories for the Magpies in 2015 and 2014, reinforcing the trend of Newcastle dominance in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2024 | Hull City 0-2 Newcastle | Friendlies Clubs |
| 29 Nov 2016 | Hull City 1-1 Newcastle | League Cup |
| 31 Jan 2015 | Hull City 0-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
| 20 Sep 2014 | Newcastle 2-2 Hull City | Premier League |
| 1 Mar 2014 | Hull City 1-4 Newcastle | Premier League |
Team News
Newcastle: D. Burn (Ankle Injury), Joelinton (Thigh Injury), W. Osula (Injury), A. Dedic (Hamstring Injury)
Hull City: I. Ansah (Back Injury), J. Butland (Arm Injury), D. Gyabi (Groin Injury), C. Hughes (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Newcastle vs Hull City?
Newcastle to win. The model’s 49.3% win probability, combined with Newcastle’s superior home xG and recent form, makes a home victory the most likely result.
What does the model give Newcastle vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Newcastle a 49.3% chance, the draw 21.6%, and Hull City 29.0% to win.
When is Newcastle vs Hull City?
Newcastle play Hull City on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Premier League at St. James' Park.
Are there any injury concerns for Newcastle vs Hull City?
Newcastle: D. Burn (Ankle Injury), Joelinton (Thigh Injury), W. Osula (Injury), A. Dedic (Hamstring Injury). Hull City: I. Ansah (Back Injury), J. Butland (Arm Injury), D. Gyabi (Groin Injury), C. Hughes (Groin Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →With a clear xG advantage, a home record that mirrors their scoring rate, and a head‑to‑head trend favoring Newcastle, the model’s highest‑probability outcome is a Magpies victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
