Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: Under 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest and Tottenham arrive with identical expected‑goals of 1.35, yet both sides have struggled to find the net in recent outings. The statistical backdrop points to a low‑scoring affair.
Forest come off a loss and a draw, while Tottenham have suffered two defeats, leaving both clubs with a dampened attacking edge. Injuries to key attackers on both sides further blunt the goal threat heading into the clash.
Robbo's Verdict
The combination of zero home goals for Forest, zero away goals for Tottenham and recent shut‑out defeats make a sub‑2.5‑goal result the most plausible scenario.
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With Nottingham Forest averaging 1.35 expected goals and Tottenham averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Nottingham Forest 1.35 + Tottenham 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Nottingham Forest at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Tottenham at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Nottingham Forest
Forest’s last five league results include a 0‑1 loss to Leeds (H) and a 2‑2 draw at Liverpool (A). The defeat and the low‑scoring draw illustrate a side that can at best scrape a point while struggling to score, reinforcing the under‑2.5 goals pick.
Tottenham
Tottenham’s recent run features a 0‑3 loss at Brentford (A) and a 0‑2 loss to Newcastle (H). Two consecutive shut‑outs confirm a drought in front of goal that aligns with a low‑total‑goals scenario.
Head-to-Head
The last five meetings have produced an average of 2.8 goals per game, highlighted by a 3‑0 win for Forest in March 2026. This higher‑scoring history contradicts the under‑2.5 pick, but current form and venue data outweigh the historical trend.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 14 Dec 2025 | Nottingham Forest 3-0 Tottenham | Premier League |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Tottenham 1-2 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Nottingham Forest 1-0 Tottenham | Premier League |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Tottenham 3-1 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Team News (Pregame)
Nottingham Forest: I. Sangare (Calf Injury), N. Savona (Knee Injury), R. Yates (Injury)
Tottenham: D. Kulusevski (Knee Injury), J. Maddison (Knock), W. Odobert (Knee Injury), P. M. Sarr (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Nottingham Forest and Tottenham drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Nottingham Forest 0-0 Tottenham (full time).
When was Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?
Nottingham Forest played Tottenham on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Premier League at City Ground.
More Premier League This Week
See all Premier League fixtures →With both teams averaging virtually no goals in the venue‑specific data and recent form confirming a lack of firepower, the most likely outcome is fewer than three goals in total.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
