Orgryte IS vs Halmstad: Orgryte IS to win
Orgryte IS come in with a 63.7% win probability against a struggling Halmstad side that has managed just 0.7 expected goals away. The home side’s recent 1.8 xG and the visitors’ 0.7 xG set up a clear advantage for the hosts.
Both teams arrive with contrasting recent form: Orgryte IS have a mixed bag of results but still sit on a positive expected goal output, while Halmstad have slipped to a string of defeats away from home.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Orgryte a 63.7% chance of victory, driven by their superior expected goals and Halmstad’s weak away scoring record.
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With Orgryte IS averaging 1.8 expected goals and Halmstad averaging 0.7, the model gives a 58.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 42.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Orgryte IS 1.8 + Halmstad 0.7) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Orgryte IS at 63.7%, the draw at 22.3%, and Halmstad at 14.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS have recorded a win‑draw‑loss‑win‑loss sequence in their last five league games, highlighted by a 4‑3 home win over BK Hacken and a 3‑0 away triumph at AIK Stockholm. The 3‑4 home defeat to AIK shows they can concede heavily, but the recent 3‑0 away win demonstrates their capacity to dominate when in form, supporting a win pick for this fixture.
Halmstad
Halmstad’s five‑game run reads loss‑loss‑draw‑loss‑loss, featuring a 0‑3 away loss to Djurgårdens IF and a 0‑2 home defeat to BK Hacken. The lack of goals in those matches, coupled with only a single draw, underscores their scoring woes and backs the expectation they will struggle to secure points here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Halmstad have won three times, including a 2‑0 win on 23 May 2026, while Orgryte have only one win (2‑3 on 11 Oct 2022). The recent 2‑0 loss suggests Halmstad can still cause trouble, but the overall trend favors Orgryte’s home advantage for this pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | Halmstad 2-0 Orgryte IS | Allsvenskan |
| 11 Oct 2022 | Halmstad 2-3 Orgryte IS | Superettan |
| 5 Apr 2022 | Orgryte IS 2-2 Halmstad | Superettan |
| 28 Nov 2020 | Halmstad 1-0 Orgryte IS | Superettan |
| 23 Jun 2020 | Orgryte IS 0-3 Halmstad | Superettan |
Team News (Pregame)
Orgryte IS: A. Abukar (Knee Injury), R. Alm (Knee Injury), A. Andersson (Inactive), J. Azulay (Inactive)
Halmstad: R. Ascone (Yellow Cards), R. Kaib (Yellow Cards), A. Boman (Red Card), P. Gregor (Suspended)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Orgryte IS and Halmstad drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Orgryte IS to win.
What was the final score of Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Orgryte IS 1-1 Halmstad (full time).
When was Orgryte IS vs Halmstad?
Orgryte IS played Halmstad on Sat 22 Aug · 14:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Gamla Ullevi.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →All signs point to a home victory, with the statistical edge too large for Halmstad to overturn.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
