Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF: Orgryte IS to win
Orgryte IS average 1.7 expected goals at home against Hammarby’s 1.4 away, yet the model still backs the hosts at 44.7%. Both sides have recent form suggesting plenty of chances, but Orgryte’s home scoring edge is the decisive factor.
Orgryte host Hammarby in a clash that pits the Gothenburg side’s modest home advantage against the Stockholm club’s strong away form. The fixture follows a lopsided 8-1 win for Hammarby in April, but the teams have swapped fortunes in their most recent five games.
Lars's Verdict
Back Orgryte IS to win based on their higher expected goals at home (1.7 vs 1.4) and the model’s 44.7% win probability.
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With Orgryte IS averaging 1.7 expected goals and Hammarby FF averaging 1.4, the model gives a 61.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 38.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.1 (Orgryte IS 1.7 + Hammarby FF 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 59.9% chance against 40.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Orgryte IS at 44.7%, the draw at 23.6%, and Hammarby FF at 31.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Orgryte IS
Orgryte’s last five league games read W‑L‑L‑D‑L, including a 3‑0 win at AIK Stockholm and a 3‑4 loss at home to the same opposition. The 3‑0 victory demonstrates their ability to score multiple goals, while the 1‑1 draw against Halmstad shows they can also hold opponents at bay, supporting a win probability above the draw.
Hammarby FF
Hammarby’s recent run is D‑W‑W‑W‑L, highlighted by a 4‑0 away win at Kalmar FF and a 2‑3 loss at AIK Stockholm. The dominant 4‑0 result underlines their potency on the road, but the narrow defeat to AIK suggests they can be vulnerable, reinforcing why the model still favors Orgryte at home.
Head-to-Head
The only head-to-head meeting this season ended 8‑1 to Hammarby, a result that would favour the visitors, yet the model still rates Orgryte higher because of their home expected goals advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Hammarby FF 8-1 Orgryte IS | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
Orgryte IS: A. Abukar (Knee Injury), R. Alm (Injury), W. Svensson (Injury), D. Paulson (Red Card)
Hammarby FF: S. Kone (Knee Injury), F. Adjei (Yellow Cards), V. Eriksson (Yellow Cards), H. Skoglund (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF?
Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Orgryte IS to win.
What was the final score of Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF?
Orgryte IS 1-1 Hammarby FF (full time).
When was Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF?
Orgryte IS played Hammarby FF on Sun 6 Sep · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Gamla Ullevi.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →The home side’s superior goal threat, combined with a higher win probability from the model, points to a result in Orgryte’s favour.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
