Orgryte IS vs Sirius: Over 2.5 goals
Orgryte IS host Sirius in a fixture where the combined expected goals sit at 4.1 per game. The model assigns a 77.5% chance of more than 2.5 goals, making a goal‑rich encounter the most likely outcome.
Both clubs arrive with uneven recent runs – Orgryte have lost three of their last five, while Sirius have managed just one win in the same span. Injury lists on both sides remove a handful of regulars, but the core attacking units remain available.
Lars's Verdict
Back the over‑2.5 goals line, as the combined expected goals of 4.1 and a 77.5% model probability indicate a strong chance of three or more goals.
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With Orgryte IS averaging 1.6 expected goals and Sirius averaging 2.5, the model gives a 73.2% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 26.8% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.1 (Orgryte IS 1.6 + Sirius 2.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 77.5% chance against 22.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Orgryte IS at 23.9%, the draw at 18.7%, and Sirius at 57.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 8.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Orgryte IS
Orgryte’s recent five results include a 1‑3 loss at IF Brommapojkarna and a 1‑4 defeat at Malmö FF, both heavy defeats that saw them concede three or more goals. Their two draws, 1‑1 versus Halmstad and 1‑1 versus Hammarby, still featured a goal each, indicating they can both score and concede. This pattern of conceding multiple goals aligns with an over‑2.5 result.
Sirius
Sirius have recorded a 2‑2 draw at IF Brommapojkarna and a 3‑4 loss at Mjällby AIF, combining for seven goals in just two fixtures. Their recent 1‑0 win at Västerås shows they can also keep a clean sheet, but the high‑scoring matches dominate their form, supporting a game with many goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last three meetings, Sirius have won each time – 2‑0 in May 2026, 4‑1 in October 2016, and 2‑1 in May 2016 – delivering three‑goal margins that reinforce the expectation of several goals in this clash.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Sirius 2-0 Orgryte IS | Allsvenskan |
| 17 Oct 2016 | Sirius 4-1 Orgryte IS | Superettan |
| 15 May 2016 | Orgryte IS 1-2 Sirius | Superettan |
Team News (Pregame)
Orgryte IS: A. Abukar (Knee Injury), R. Alm (Injury), W. Svensson (Injury), J. Tibbling (Inactive)
Sirius: M. Nartey (Inactive), M. Soumah (Yellow Cards), O. Liimatta (Inactive), N. Jonsson (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Orgryte IS vs Sirius?
Sirius won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Orgryte IS vs Sirius?
Orgryte IS 1-2 Sirius (full time).
When was Orgryte IS vs Sirius?
Orgryte IS played Sirius on Sat 19 Sep · 16:30 BST in the Allsvenskan at Gamla Ullevi.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →With both teams capable of finding the net and the statistical outlook heavily skewed toward a goal‑laden game, the over‑2.5 market stands out as the clearest read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
