Parma vs Genoa: Genoa to win
Parma's modest 0.5 xG at home meets Genoa's 1.35 away xG, and the model backs Genoa at 58% to take all three points. Both sides have struggled to score recently, setting the stage for a low‑scoring showdown.
Both clubs arrive with thin recent form – Parma have lost four of their last five, while Genoa have failed to win in four, managing only a draw. The lack of momentum and the similarity in defensive records make a defensive battle likely.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates Genoa's win chance at 58%, driven by their superior expected goals versus Parma's modest 0.5 xG at home.
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With Parma averaging 0.5 expected goals and Genoa averaging 1.35, the model gives a 70.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 29.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.9 (Parma 0.5 + Genoa 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 71.7% chance against 28.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Parma at 13.7%, the draw at 28.3%, and Genoa at 58.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 21.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Parma
Parma's recent run reads L‑L‑D‑L, with a 0‑1 loss to Cagliari at home and a 1‑1 draw against Monza also on home soil. The lone point from the draw shows they can hold opponents but struggle to find the net, underscoring the difficulty of securing a win here.
Genoa
Genoa have gone L‑L‑L‑D in their last four league outings, including a 0‑2 loss to Napoli at home and a 1‑1 draw with Frosinone at home. The draw demonstrates they can avoid defeat, but the three straight losses highlight a need for a decisive result, supporting a win prediction.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, there have been two draws (0‑0 in Jan 2026 and Oct 2025) and two Genoa wins (1‑0 in Jan 2025 and 1‑0 in Nov 2024), with Parma's only victory a 2‑0 win in Feb 2023 – a mixed record that still favours Genoa.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Parma 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Genoa 0-0 Parma | Serie A |
| 12 Jan 2025 | Genoa 1-0 Parma | Serie A |
| 4 Nov 2024 | Parma 0-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| 5 Feb 2023 | Parma 2-0 Genoa | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Parma: H. Nicolussi Caviglia (Groin Injury), A. Bernabe (Inactive), O. Diallo (Injury), S. Britschgi (Yellow Cards)
Genoa: E. Havel (Ankle Injury), L. Venturino (Knee Injury), C. Drameh (Inactive), H. J. Traore (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Parma vs Genoa?
Parma won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Genoa to win.
What was the final score of Parma vs Genoa?
Parma 2-1 Genoa (full time).
When was Parma vs Genoa?
Parma played Genoa on Sun 20 Sep · 14:00 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →Given the xG gap and the model's 58% win probability for Genoa, the most reliable read is a straight win for the visitors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
