Parma vs Monza: Parma to win
Parma’s expected‑goals edge of 0.35 over Monza (1.35 vs 1.00) translates into the model’s highest win probability of the three outcomes at 44.8%. The home side’s solid defensive record at home (1.0 conceded per game) further tips the balance.
Both clubs enter this Serie A clash on shaky recent form – Parma have managed just one goal in their last four league outings, while Monza have failed to keep a clean sheet in two defeats. Injuries to Parma’s Nicolussi Caviglia and Monza’s P. Ciurria add to the uncertainty, but the statistical picture still favours the hosts.
Robbo's Verdict
Parma’s 44.8% win probability and superior expected‑goals metric make them the clear favourite over Monza’s 27.7% chance.
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With Parma averaging 1.35 expected goals and Monza averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Parma 1.35 + Monza 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Parma at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Monza at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Parma
Parma’s recent league run includes a 1‑0 win over Sassuolo at home and a 0‑1 loss to Cagliari on home soil, showing they can keep a clean sheet but struggle to score. Their other matches – a 0‑1 defeat at Como and a 0‑2 loss at Juventus – underline a pattern of limited attacking output, which supports a narrow home victory rather than a high‑scoring affair.
Monza
Monza have lost both of their latest league games, conceding four at Inter (1‑4) and three at Udinese (2‑3). The heavy defeats illustrate defensive frailties on the road, implying they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against Parma.
Head-to-Head
In the four most recent meetings, the teams have drawn three times – 1‑1 in March 2025, 1‑1 in March 2022 and 0‑0 in October 2021 – with Parma’s only win coming 2‑1 in December 2024, a result that aligns with a modest home advantage.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2025 | Monza 1-1 Parma | Serie A |
| 28 Dec 2024 | Parma 2-1 Monza | Serie A |
| 2 Mar 2022 | Monza 1-1 Parma | Serie B |
| 17 Oct 2021 | Parma 0-0 Monza | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Parma: H. Nicolussi Caviglia (Groin Injury), S. Britschgi (Yellow Cards), A. Joujou (Inactive)
Monza: P. Ciurria (Inactive), M. Pessina (Knee Injury), I. Toure (Knee Injury), E. Akinsanmiro (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Parma vs Monza?
Parma and Monza drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Parma to win.
What was the final score of Parma vs Monza?
Parma 1-1 Monza (full time).
When was Parma vs Monza?
Parma played Monza on Sun 6 Sep · 14:00 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →When the numbers line up – higher expected goals, a better win probability and a tighter defensive record – the logical conclusion is a Parma win at home.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
