PEC Zwolle vs Ajax: Both teams to score - Yes
Zwolle host Ajax in a balanced Eredivisie clash with both sides averaging 1.35 expected goals. The model sees a slight edge for both teams finding the net.
Zwolle come into the game after a mixed five‑match run (DLWLL), while Ajax have only two league results on record this season (WD). Both clubs have struggled to convert chances – their season‑long expected‑goals figures sit at 1.35 each – setting the stage for a tight encounter.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 54.9% probability to both sides finding the net, making the BTTS‑Yes market the most compelling pick.
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With PEC Zwolle averaging 1.35 expected goals and Ajax averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (PEC Zwolle 1.35 + Ajax 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has PEC Zwolle at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Ajax at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
PEC Zwolle
Zwolle’s five‑match stretch reads DLWLL, featuring a 2‑2 home draw against Excelsior and a 1‑0 home win over Heracles. The draw shows they can score twice, while the win proves they can keep a clean sheet. Those two results underpin the expectation that Zwolle will be able to get on the scoresheet against Ajax.
Ajax
Ajax’s two recorded matches are a 2‑0 home win over Groningen and a 0‑0 home draw with Utrecht. The win confirms their ability to score, and the draw demonstrates they can also be held without reply. Together they suggest Ajax have the capacity to both score and be shut out, supporting the BTTS‑Yes outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, only the 2025‑09‑13 3‑1 Ajax win featured goals from both sides, while four matches ended with a clean sheet for at least one team, indicating a slight tendency toward low‑scoring affairs but still leaving room for both to score this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2026 | PEC Zwolle 0-0 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Ajax 3-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 9 Mar 2025 | PEC Zwolle 0-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Ajax 2-0 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 5 Jul 2024 | Ajax 0-1 PEC Zwolle | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
PEC Zwolle: Y. Namli (Inactive)
Ajax: R. Bounida (Inactive), J. Faberski (Knee Injury), A. Kaplan (Inactive), J. Sutalo (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Ajax won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax (full time).
When was PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
PEC Zwolle played Ajax on Sun 9 Aug · 13:30 BST in the Eredivisie at TBC.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →Given the comparable attacking output and the prevalence of both teams scoring in recent fixtures, the most logical bet aligns with the model’s BTTS probability.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
