PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen: NEC Nijmegen Draw No Bet
NEC Nijmegen arrive with a 4.0 xG rate versus PEC Zwolle's 1.35, and the model gives NEC a whopping 80.7% chance to win. The numbers point to a clear advantage for the visitors.
Both clubs come in with contrasting recent form: PEC Zwolle have rattled off four straight defeats before finally winning, while NEC have bounced back from a loss with a dominant 4‑1 away win. The clash pits a struggling home side against an away outfit that has shown firepower in its limited recent outings.
Lars's Verdict
With an 80.7% win probability and a 9.5% draw chance, the model assigns NEC a roughly 90% chance to avoid defeat.
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With PEC Zwolle averaging 1.35 expected goals and NEC Nijmegen averaging 4.0, the model gives a 71.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 28.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.3 (PEC Zwolle 1.35 + NEC Nijmegen 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 88.1% chance against 11.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has PEC Zwolle at 7.7%, the draw at 9.5%, and NEC Nijmegen at 80.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-3 at 6.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle have lost four consecutive matches, including a 2‑3 defeat away at Fortuna Sittard and a 0‑2 loss at home to Feyenoord. Their only recent win was a 2‑0 away victory over Heerenveen, which shows they can score when the opposition is vulnerable, but the string of defeats indicates a low likelihood of turning the tide against a high‑scoring NEC side.
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen lost 1‑2 at home to Telstar before exploding to a 4‑1 away win over Willem II, demonstrating that they can both score heavily and concede when dominant. The 4‑1 result, with four goals scored away, underlines their capacity to breach Zwolle's defence, which concedes two per home game on average.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, NEC have won four times, most recently 2‑1 on 24 Jan 2026, confirming the trend that NEC generally outperforms Zwolle in this fixture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | NEC Nijmegen 2-1 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| 25 Oct 2025 | PEC Zwolle 2-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 11 Jan 2025 | PEC Zwolle 0-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| 29 Oct 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 4-3 PEC Zwolle | KNVB Beker |
| 24 Aug 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-0 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
PEC Zwolle: J. Burger (Knock), S. Floranus (Red Card), Y. Namli (Knee Injury)
NEC Nijmegen: A. Kaplan (Knee Injury), K. Ogawa (Head Injury), S. Ouaissa (Muscle Injury), P. Sandler (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was NEC Nijmegen Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen (full time).
When was PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
PEC Zwolle played NEC Nijmegen on Sat 29 Aug · 20:00 BST in the Eredivisie at TBC.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →All signs point to NEC overwhelming Zwolle, making a straight win or a draw‑no‑bet the safest route.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
