Pisa vs Empoli: Empoli to win
Pisa's five-game losing streak and a meagre 0.5 xG at home contrast sharply with Empoli's 1.35 expected goals on the road. The model backs Empoli heavily to take the win.
Both sides enter the Coppa Italia tie with very different recent trajectories. Pisa have dropped five straight league matches, while Empoli’s form is unknown but their season‑long scoring rate is markedly higher.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Empoli a 58.0% chance of victory, reflecting their superior expected goals and Pisa’s five‑game losing run.
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With Pisa averaging 0.5 expected goals and Empoli averaging 1.35, the model gives a 70.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 29.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.9 (Pisa 0.5 + Empoli 1.35) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 71.7% chance against 28.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Pisa at 13.7%, the draw at 28.3%, and Empoli at 58.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 21.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Pisa
Pisa have lost their last five league matches, including a 0‑1 defeat at Parma, a 1‑2 loss to Lecce at home, and a 0‑3 defeat to Napoli at home. Each result shows a lack of firepower and defensive lapses, reinforcing why they are unlikely to overturn the match‑result odds here.
Empoli
Empoli’s recent league form is not provided, but their season‑wide away expected goals of 1.35 indicate a consistent scoring threat that complements their defensive solidity, supporting a win in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last four meetings Empoli have won three times, including a 3‑1 victory in October 2020, while the only draw was a 1‑1 stalemate in February 2021, underscoring Empoli’s historical edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2021 | Pisa 1-1 Empoli | Serie B |
| 23 Oct 2020 | Empoli 3-1 Pisa | Serie B |
| 16 Feb 2020 | Empoli 2-1 Pisa | Serie B |
| 24 Sep 2019 | Pisa 2-3 Empoli | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Pisa vs Empoli?
Pisa and Empoli drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Empoli to win.
What was the final score of Pisa vs Empoli?
Pisa 1-1 Empoli (full time).
When was Pisa vs Empoli?
Pisa played Empoli on Mon 17 Aug · 17:00 BST in the Coppa Italia at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
More Coppa Italia This Week
See all Coppa Italia fixtures →Those statistical imbalances translate into a clear expectation: Empoli should outscore Pisa and secure the three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
