PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen: Groningen to win
Groningen's away expected goals of 4.0 dwarf PSV's 2.0, and the model rates a 70.9% chance of an upset on the road.
PSV host Groningen in the Eredivisie with both sides looking to cement recent momentum – PSV have won three of their last four league outings, while Groningen have collected three wins from four.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Groningen a 70.9% chance of victory, driven by their superior away expected goals and recent winning streak.
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With PSV Eindhoven averaging 2.0 expected goals and Groningen averaging 4.0, the model gives a 83.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 17.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 6.0 (PSV Eindhoven 2.0 + Groningen 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 91.6% chance against 8.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has PSV Eindhoven at 14.8%, the draw at 12.2%, and Groningen at 70.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-3 at 5.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
PSV Eindhoven
PSV's last five league results read W‑4‑1 vs GO Ahead Eagles (A), W‑5‑1 vs Twente (H), D‑2‑2 vs Fortuna Sittard (H), W‑2‑1 vs Excelsior (A). Three wins and a draw signal an effective attack but also a leaky defence, reinforcing why the model still favours the away side despite PSV's recent victories.
Groningen
Groningen's recent slate includes W‑2‑1 vs Heracles (A), L‑0‑2 vs Ajax (A), W‑2‑1 vs Utrecht (H), W‑4‑1 vs ADO Den Haag (A). Three wins out of four, capped by a four‑goal away haul, demonstrate their potency on the road and align with the high away xG figure.
Head-to-Head
All five recent meetings have been won by PSV, the latest being a 2‑1 win on 8 Feb 2026, which makes the model's 70.9% Groningen win probability stand out against the head‑to‑head trend.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2026 | Groningen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 23 Aug 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Groningen 1-3 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| 23 Nov 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 5-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 11 Feb 2023 | PSV Eindhoven 6-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
PSV Eindhoven: J. Schouten (Knee Injury), S. Dest (Yellow Cards), C. Driouech (Knock), J. Veerman (Red Card)
Groningen: M. Jeng (Leg Injury), T. Mercera (Injury), R. Metu (Injury), M. Rente (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
PSV Eindhoven won 5-1. Our pre-match pick was Groningen to win.
What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen (full time).
When was PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?
PSV Eindhoven played Groningen on Sun 23 Aug · 13:30 BST in the Eredivisie at Philips Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →Given the stark xG gap and Groningen's recent form, the model’s probability of a Groningen win is the most compelling single market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
