Rangers vs Hibernian: Hibernian to win
Rangers and Hibernian are locked at 1.35 expected goals each, yet the market prices Hibernian at 5.9 (16.9% implied). Our model puts both sides at 37.1% win probability, highlighting a clear undervaluation for the away side.
Both clubs enter this opening‑day clash with contrasting recent runs – Rangers have stumbled in four of their last five league games, while Hibernian have bounced back with a win over Rangers in their most recent encounter.
Hamish's Verdict
The market’s 5.9 price translates to a 16.9% implied chance, far below the model’s 37.1% win probability for Hibernian.
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With Rangers averaging 1.35 expected goals and Hibernian averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Rangers 1.35 + Hibernian 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Rangers at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Hibernian at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Rangers
Rangers have lost three of their last five league games, including a 1‑2 defeat at Hearts and a 1‑3 loss to Celtic, before a 5‑2 away win over Falkirk and a 1‑1 draw at Dundee. The string of defeats underscores a leaky defence, which dovetails with the model’s expectation that Hibernian can exploit those gaps.
Hibernian
Hibernian’s recent form features a 2‑1 away win over Rangers, a 3‑1 victory at Falkirk, but also back‑to‑back defeats to Motherwell. The win against Rangers demonstrates they can score at Ibrox, and despite the recent losses, the model still rates their win probability at 37.1%, suggesting the market is undervaluing that upside.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Rangers have won three, Hibernian once and there has been one draw – the most recent 1‑2 win for Hibernian on 13 May is the sole recent success for the visitors, but overall head‑to‑head favours Rangers, which makes the market price for Hibernian even more generous.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 May 2026 | Rangers 1-2 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Hibernian 0-0 Rangers | Premiership |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Rangers 1-0 Hibernian | Premiership |
| 29 Oct 2025 | Hibernian 0-1 Rangers | Premiership |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Rangers 2-0 Hibernian | League Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Rangers vs Hibernian?
Hibernian won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Hibernian to win.
What was the final score of Rangers vs Hibernian?
Rangers 1-2 Hibernian (full time).
When was Rangers vs Hibernian?
Rangers played Hibernian on Sun 9 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Ibrox Stadium.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given the equal win probabilities from the model and the market’s thin pricing on Hibernian, backing the away side offers a sizeable edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
