Rangers vs ST Mirren: ST Mirren to win
Rangers sit on a modest 1.0 xG at home while Mirren average 1.5 away, and the model backs Mirren to take all three points with the highest probability of the three outcomes.
Both clubs come in with contrasting recent runs – Rangers have scraped back to form after a shaky start, whereas Mirren have been unbeaten in four of their last five league outings. The fixture pits a side struggling to keep clean sheets at home against a visitor that has not conceded away all season.
Hamish's Verdict
The model assigns Mirren a 48.8% chance of winning, almost double Rangers’ 25.2% likelihood, making the away side the clear favorite.
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With Rangers averaging 1.0 expected goals and ST Mirren averaging 1.5, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Rangers 1.0 + ST Mirren 1.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Rangers at 25.2%, the draw at 26.0%, and ST Mirren at 48.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Rangers
Rangers’ last five league results read D‑L‑W‑W, highlighted by a 1‑0 win at Aberdeen and a 1‑2 loss to Hibernian. The recent back‑to‑back wins show they can break through, yet the earlier defeat and draw underline lingering inconsistency, which dampens their win probability in this match.
ST Mirren
Mirren have posted W‑W‑D‑W in their last five, including a tidy 2‑0 win at Falkirk and a 1‑0 victory over Kilmarnock. Their unbeaten stretch and clean‑sheet away record signal strong form that feeds directly into the model’s higher win odds.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Rangers have three wins (including a 5‑1 thrashing) but Mirren’s most recent 0‑1 loss at home and a 1‑1 draw suggest the away side’s defensive improvements could tilt the balance this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | Rangers 5-1 ST Mirren | League Cup |
| 15 Mar 2026 | ST Mirren 0-1 Rangers | Premiership |
| 30 Dec 2025 | Rangers 2-1 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| 24 Aug 2025 | ST Mirren 1-1 Rangers | Premiership |
| 26 Apr 2025 | ST Mirren 2-2 Rangers | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Rangers vs ST Mirren?
Rangers won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was ST Mirren to win.
What was the final score of Rangers vs ST Mirren?
Rangers 1-0 ST Mirren (full time).
When was Rangers vs ST Mirren?
Rangers played ST Mirren on Wed 9 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Ibrox Stadium.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →All signs point to Mirren capitalising on Rangers’ leaky defence, making an away win the most compelling market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
