Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna: Under 2.5 goals
Salzburg and Austria Vienna sit on identical expected‑goals figures, yet the model sees far fewer than two goals likely. Defensive patterns and recent form push the Under 2.5 goals read.
Both clubs enter the clash with a 1.0 expected‑goals rating, but Salzburg’s home record of conceding none and Vienna’s shaky away defence suggest a low‑scoring affair. The fixture offers little of the firepower that typically drives over‑2.5 games.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 67.7 % chance to under 2.5 goals, reflecting Salzburg’s clean‑sheet home record and Austria Vienna’s vulnerable away defence.
Show the maths
With Red Bull Salzburg averaging 1.0 expected goals and Austria Vienna averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Red Bull Salzburg 1.0 + Austria Vienna 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Red Bull Salzburg at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Austria Vienna at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Red Bull Salzburg
Salzburg’s recent three‑match run reads win, draw, win – a 1‑0 home victory over TSV Hartberg, a 1‑1 draw away at Wolfsberger AC, and a 3‑0 away win at WSG Wattens. The two clean‑sheet wins and the low‑scoring draw illustrate a pattern of limiting opponents, reinforcing the under‑2.5 outlook.
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna’s last three league matches are loss, loss, win – a 0‑3 defeat away at Wolfsberger AC, a 0‑2 loss at home to LASK Linz, and a 2‑0 away win at TSV Hartberg. The two shutout defeats underline defensive frailties that keep total goal tallies low, supporting the under‑2.5 pick.
Head-to-Head
In the five recent meetings, Salzburg have won four times, including a 3‑1 win on 22 April 2026, while Vienna managed a solitary 2‑0 victory on 6 February 2026 – the dominance of Salzburg aligns with the expectation of few goals.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Austria Vienna 1-3 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg 0-2 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Austria Vienna 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga |
| 4 May 2025 | Red Bull Salzburg 2-0 Austria Vienna | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna (full time).
When was Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg played Austria Vienna on Sun 30 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Red Bull Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →With both teams averaging just a single goal per game and the defensive indicators pointing to tight affairs, the probability leans heavily toward fewer than three goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
