Ried vs Rapid Vienna: Scoreline 1-1
Ried and Rapid Vienna both sit on an expected 1.35 goals per game, making the fixture a statistical dead‑heat. The model’s highest single‑outcome probability is a 1‑1 finish at 12.2 %.
Both sides enter this Austrian Bundesliga clash with identical goal expectations, so the key question is how their recent performances translate into a balanced scoreline.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 12.2 % probability to a 1‑1 result, the highest of any specific scoreline, making it the logical pick.
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With Ried averaging 1.35 expected goals and Rapid Vienna averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Ried 1.35 + Rapid Vienna 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ried at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Rapid Vienna at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ried
Ried’s recent run includes a 2‑1 home win over Wolfsberger AC and another 2‑1 home victory versus Rapid Vienna, showing they can find the net. However, a 0‑3 away defeat to Rapid Vienna and a 1‑1 draw with Austria Lustenau highlight defensive vulnerabilities. This mix of scoring and conceding suggests a balanced game that could settle at a single goal each.
Rapid Vienna
Rapid Vienna’s only listed recent result is a 1‑0 home win over SCR Altach, demonstrating a clean sheet and a modest scoring output. Their limited recent data points to a cautious approach, reinforcing the prospect of a low‑scoring encounter.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the results have alternated between narrow wins and a 3‑0 triumph for Rapid Vienna, with a recent 2‑1 win for Ried indicating that a 1‑1 draw fits the historical pattern.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 May 2026 | Rapid Vienna 3-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| 22 May 2026 | Ried 2-1 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Ried 3-0 Rapid Vienna | Cup |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Rapid Vienna 1-2 Ried | Bundesliga |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Ried 0-2 Rapid Vienna | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Scoreline 1-1.
What was the final score of Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Ried 1-2 Rapid Vienna (full time).
When was Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Ried played Rapid Vienna on Sun 9 Aug · 16:00 BST in the Austrian Bundesliga at Innviertel Arena.
More Austrian Bundesliga This Week
See all Austrian Bundesliga fixtures →Given the mirrored expected goals and the pattern of tight games, a single‑goal draw emerges as the most probable outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
