Rizespor vs Alanyaspor: Rizespor to win
Rizespor's 1.35 expected goals edges Alanyaspor's 1.0, and the model rates a 44.8% chance of a home win. Both sides' recent form and head‑to‑head record underline a tight contest.
Rizespor host Alanyaspor in the Süper Lig with a modest advantage in goal expectancy. The fixture pits a side that has drawn and won in its last four league outings against a visitor that has alternated wins and losses over the same span.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Rizespor a 44.8% chance to win versus Alanyaspor's 27.7%, making the home side the clear favourite.
Show the maths
With Rizespor averaging 1.35 expected goals and Alanyaspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Rizespor 1.35 + Alanyaspor 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Rizespor at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Alanyaspor at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Rizespor
Rizespor's recent league form reads D‑W‑L‑W, highlighted by a 2‑2 draw with Beşiktaş at home and a 1‑0 away win over Konyaspor. The draw and win demonstrate their ability to score and hold, supporting a home win probability above 40%.
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor's last five results are W‑L‑D‑W‑L, including a 3‑1 home win over Kayserispor and a 1‑0 home victory against Beşiktaş. Those wins show they can find the net, but the subsequent losses underline defensive frailties that keep their win probability at only 27.7%.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the teams have split the results with a 1‑1 draw in January 2026 and a 3‑1 home win for Rizespor in March 2025, indicating a modest edge for the hosts that aligns with the model’s win rating.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Alanyaspor 0-0 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 2 Mar 2025 | Rizespor 3-1 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Alanyaspor 1-0 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Alanyaspor 2-1 Rizespor | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Rizespor: K. Alikulov (Knee Injury), M. Diakite (Inactive), V. Mihaila (Inactive), F. Orak (Inactive)
Alanyaspor: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Rizespor to win.
What was the final score of Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Rizespor 0-1 Alanyaspor (full time).
When was Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Rizespor played Alanyaspor on Mon 7 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at TBC.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the higher expected goals and the slight edge in recent results, the model’s strongest signal points to a Rizespor victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
