Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam: Rosenborg to win
Rosenborg's 2.0 expected goals face Ham‑Kam's 1.1, with the model giving a 58.2% chance of a home win. The recent form and head‑to‑head suggest the Norwegian giants should edge it.
Both clubs come in with contrasting recent form: Rosenborg have won four of their last five league games, while Ham‑Kam have managed just one win in the same span. The disparity in results sets up a clear advantage for the home side.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Rosenborg's win probability at 58.2%, the highest single‑outcome likelihood among the three options.
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With Rosenborg averaging 2.0 expected goals and Ham-Kam averaging 1.1, the model gives a 57.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.1 (Rosenborg 2.0 + Ham-Kam 1.1) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 59.9% chance against 40.1% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Rosenborg at 58.2%, the draw at 21.4%, and Ham-Kam at 20.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Rosenborg
Rosenborg's recent run includes a 3-0 away win at Start and a 4-0 home victory over Fredrikstad, showing they can dominate both on the road and at home. Their only loss, 2-3 at Brann, came against a strong side, but the subsequent wins (2-0 at Lillestrom and 2-1 at Viking) illustrate a consistent goal threat, supporting a win pick.
Ham-Kam
Ham‑Kam's form features a 3-0 away win over Valerenga, but is otherwise poor, with 0-3 defeats at Bodo/Glimt and Brann and a 0-1 loss at Sarpsborg 08. Even their 1-1 home draw with Aalesund failed to generate goals, underscoring limited attacking output and reinforcing the expectation of a Rosenborg win.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Rosenborg have three wins (2-0, 2-0, 1-0) and two losses (4-0, 3-0), indicating a recent edge despite occasional setbacks, which supports the home win prediction.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2025 | Ham-Kam 4-0 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 13 Jul 2025 | Rosenborg 2-0 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Ham-Kam 0-2 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Rosenborg 1-0 Ham-Kam | Eliteserien |
| 20 Aug 2023 | Ham-Kam 3-0 Rosenborg | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Rosenborg: D. Islamovic (Leg Injury), I. Fossum (Thigh Injury), S. Nordli (Injury), E. Slordal (Leg Injury)
Ham-Kam: N. Alexandersson (Injury), M. Gjone (Red Card), D. Benjamin (Injury), H. Opsahl (Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg won 4-0. Our pre-match pick was Rosenborg to win.
What was the final score of Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg 4-0 Ham-Kam (full time).
When was Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg played Ham-Kam on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Lerkendal Stadion.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →Given the superior xG, better recent form, and the home advantage, Rosenborg looks poised to secure the three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
