Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe: Samsunspor to win
Samsunspor boast an expected 3.0 goals at home while Fenerbahçe average just 1.0 away. The model rates the hosts’ win probability at 77.1%, making a home victory the clearest outcome.
Both sides start the Süper Lig campaign with contrasting recent form: Samsunspor have been erratic but capable of big scores, whereas Fenerbahçe have struggled to find consistency away from Istanbul.
Lars's Verdict
With a two‑goal expected‑goals edge and a 77.1% win probability, the home side is far more likely to secure three points than the visitors are to salvage a draw or win.
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With Samsunspor averaging 3.0 expected goals and Fenerbahçe averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Samsunspor 3.0 + Fenerbahçe 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Samsunspor at 77.1%, the draw at 13.1%, and Fenerbahçe at 9.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Samsunspor
Samsunspor’s recent five‑game run reads WLWDW, highlighted by a 4-1 home win over Galatasaray and a 0-3 away loss to Başakşehir. The big win shows they can exploit weaker defenses, while the heavy loss underlines occasional volatility – but the dominant home performance against Galatasaray is the type of result that supports a home win here.
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe’s last two league outings are L 1-2 at Gençlerbirliği and W 4-2 against Konyaspor. The narrow loss shows difficulty scoring away, and even the high‑scoring win came with a concession of two goals, suggesting the visitors lack defensive solidity that could keep the game level.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Fenerbahçe have won twice (3-2 on 8 Mar 2026 and 2-0 on 6 Jan 2026) and drawn three times, including a 2-2 stalemate in Oct 2024 – the mixed record leans slightly toward the visitors, but the model’s home‑win probability outweighs the head‑to‑head balance.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Fenerbahçe 3-2 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 6 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahçe 2-0 Samsunspor | Super Cup |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Samsunspor 0-0 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Fenerbahçe 0-0 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Samsunspor 2-2 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Samsunspor: J. Assoumou (Inactive), Y. E. Cift (Inactive), T. Coulibaly (Inactive), I. Drapinski (Inactive)
Fenerbahçe: E. Demir (Inactive), Diego Carlos (Inactive), M. Gunok (Muscle Injury), D. Livakovic (Transfer negotiations)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Samsunspor to win.
What was the final score of Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Samsunspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe (full time).
When was Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Samsunspor played Fenerbahçe on Sun 30 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Süper Lig at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →All signs point to the hosts capitalising on their superior firepower and the visitors’ defensive frailties, so the logical pick follows the model’s strongest signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
