Samsunspor vs Göztepe: Both teams to score - Yes
Samsunspor and Göztepe head into a tightly balanced Süper Lig clash, with the model assigning identical win odds and a slight edge to the Over 2.5 goals market.
Both sides arrive on an even footing after mixed recent runs – Samsunspor with three wins and a loss in their last four league games, and Göztepe with two wins, a draw and a loss. The fixture pits two sides that have already exchanged high‑scoring results in recent head‑to‑heads.
Lars's Verdict
The BTTS probability of 54.9% and the history of 17 goals in five meetings suggest both sides will likely find the net.
Show the maths
With Samsunspor averaging 1.35 expected goals and Göztepe averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Samsunspor 1.35 + Göztepe 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Samsunspor at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Göztepe at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Samsunspor
Samsunspor's recent league form reads WWLW over four matches, featuring a 3‑2 away win at Alanyaspor and a 4‑1 home victory over Galatasaray, showing they can score multiple goals. Their 0‑3 loss at Başakşehir is the only match where they failed to hit the net, indicating a generally strong offense that supports a BTTS outcome.
Göztepe
Göztepe's last four league results are WDWL, including a 2‑0 home win over Antalyaspor and a 2‑1 home win against Gaziantep FK, demonstrating their ability to score. The 0‑3 away loss to Samsunspor shows a defensive vulnerability, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides scoring.
Head-to-Head
In the five head‑to‑head meetings, the teams have combined for 17 goals, with Samsunspor winning 3‑0 in May 2026 and Göztepe taking a 2‑0 win in December 2025, confirming a trend of frequent scoring that backs the BTTS pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Samsunspor 3-0 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Göztepe 2-0 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 3 Mar 2025 | Göztepe 2-2 Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Samsunspor 4-3 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 7 Apr 2023 | Göztepe 1-0 Samsunspor | 1. Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Samsunspor and Göztepe drew 3-3. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe (full time).
When was Samsunspor vs Göztepe?
Samsunspor played Göztepe on Mon 17 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Süper Lig at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With the model assigning a 54.9% probability to both sides scoring and the recent high‑scoring head‑to‑head record, the safest read points to goals from both teams in this encounter.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
