Sandefjord vs Start: Under 2.5 goals
Sandefjord's 0.7 expected goals meet Start's 1.0 threat, but the model's 75.7% chance of under 2.5 goals suggests a tight affair.
Both sides enter this Eliteserien clash with modest scoring records – Sandefjord have netted five and conceded six in their last five games, while Start have found the net six times but let in seven.
Lars's Verdict
The model’s 75.7% under‑2.5 probability, driven by low expected goals and a history of tight scorelines, makes this the safest bet.
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With Sandefjord averaging 0.7 expected goals and Start averaging 1.0, the model gives a 68.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 31.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Sandefjord 0.7 + Start 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 75.7% chance against 24.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Sandefjord at 24.9%, the draw at 33.5%, and Start at 41.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 18.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Sandefjord
Sandefjord’s last five league games have yielded five goals (0,2,0,1,2) and conceded six, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win over Sarpsborg 08 and a 1‑1 home draw with Viking. The low scoring output and frequent draws point to a limited goal tally in this fixture.
Start
Start have scored six and let in seven in their previous five matches, with a standout 4‑1 home win over KFUM Oslo and a clean‑sheet 2‑0 victory at home against Brann. Despite occasional bursts, the overall goal volume remains modest, supporting an under‑2.5 outcome.
Head-to-Head
Recent head‑to‑head meetings have produced low‑scoring results, notably a 1‑0 win for Start in 2023 and a 0‑1 win for Sandefjord in 2020, indicating a trend toward tight scorelines.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Sandefjord 3-2 Start | Friendlies Clubs |
| 5 Mar 2023 | Start 1-0 Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2 May 2021 | Start 1-1 Sandefjord | Friendlies Clubs |
| 24 Oct 2020 | Start 0-1 Sandefjord | Eliteserien |
| 21 Jun 2020 | Sandefjord 2-2 Start | Eliteserien |
Team News (Pregame)
Sandefjord: D. Koswal (Injury), X. Lambrix (Yellow Cards), F. Loftesnes-Bjune (Thigh Injury), M. Melchior (Knee Injury)
Start: D. Dashaev (Yellow Cards), F. Lien (Foot Injury), J. Norheim (Arm Injury), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Sandefjord vs Start?
Sandefjord won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Sandefjord vs Start?
Sandefjord 3-0 Start (full time).
When was Sandefjord vs Start?
Sandefjord played Start on Sun 20 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Eliteserien at Jotun Arena.
More Eliteserien This Week
See all Eliteserien fixtures →With the model assigning a 75.7% probability to under 2.5 goals and the top scorelines dominated by 0‑0, 0‑1, and 1‑0 results, the match is set to stay below the goal line.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
